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To: dkgross who wrote (125482)1/1/2004 6:43:44 PM
From: StocksDATsoar  Respond to of 150070
 
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To: dkgross who wrote (125482)1/1/2004 6:47:28 PM
From: StocksDATsoar  Respond to of 150070
 
Market Ends Year With First Annual Gain Since 1999
By Elizabeth Lazarowitz, Reuters



Getty Images
The Dow rose 25 percent this year.

NEW YORK (Dec. 31) - Blue chips posted slim gains to end at their 2003 peak on Wednesday as investors paused to reflect on the blazing rally over the past year that helped the market rack up its first annual gain since 1999.

Signs of an economic rebound, higher corporate profits and the success of U.S.-led forces in toppling Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein gave stocks a hefty boost in 2003, helping them to recover from a punishing 3-year bear market.

''It was the first time in a long time that we've seen corporate profits hold and move even slightly higher compared to expectations,'' said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank Private Banking.

Low interest rates throughout the year helped build hopes for an economic recovery and feed investors' appetite for stocks, Fitzpatrick added.


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For the year, the blue-chip Dow rose 25.3 percent, its biggest yearly gain since 1996. The S&P 500 gained 26.4 percent to post its largest annual gain since 1998, and the tech-laden Nasdaq soared 50 percent, its biggest increase since 1999.

Stocks spent much of Wednesday circling the unchanged mark, with technology stocks coming under modest pressure as some traders locked in profits in a sector that has helped lead the market higher after years of wrenching declines.

''The Nasdaq is down on just a little bit of profit-taking, but, in general, the performance in the month of December has been spectacular,'' said Arnie Owen, a managing director at investment bank and research firm Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. in San Francisco. ''We're looking at a very constructive 2004, with better corporate earnings and continued low interest rates.''


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An Up Year for the Economy


The Dow Jones industrial average rose 28.88 points, or 0.28 percent, to end at 10,453.92, its highest level since since March 2002. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 2.28 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,111.92, its highest peak since April 2002. The technology-packed Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 6.51 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,003.37.

In December, the Dow surged 6.9 percent, the S&P 500 rose 5.1 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.2 percent.

Trading was light on Wednesday, with many Wall Street traders on vacation over the shortened week. About 986 million shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, while about 1.8 billion shares were traded on the Nasdaq. Both the NYSE and the Nasdaq will be closed on Thursday for New Year's Day.

POSITIVE SIGNS

Wall Street reacted coolly to the latest economic data -- a government report showing U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level in nearly three years last week, raising hopes the economy's resurgence will accelerate job creation.

The Labor Department said 339,000 unemployed workers filed for unemployment insurance in the week ended Dec. 27, down from a revised 354,000 a week earlier and much lower than forecasts. The level of new claims was the lowest since President George W. Bush's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2001.


More on This Story


· Dow 10,000 May Be Ceiling for Years
· Investors May Have to Trim Expectations

The positive jobs report, however, failed to support the dollar, which fell against other currencies and hit an all-time low against the euro on Wednesday. The greenback's recent drop has fed fears foreigners, faced with getting less bang for the buck, will flee dollar-denominated assets.

Bearish sentiment toward the dollar has intensified after the release of some disappointing economic data on Tuesday and fears of potential attacks in the United States during the New Year celebrations.

Merck & Co. Inc. helped bolster the Dow after the company said on Tuesday it has submitted its new arthritis drug, Arcoxia, to the Food and Drug Administration to review for U.S. marketing approval.

The FDA will determine whether it will accept the application as submitted within the next 60 days, Merck said. Merck shares rose 70 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $46.20.

Halliburton Co. shares fell a day after a U.S. military energy unit said it would take over the job of providing fuel for Iraq, a move that would end an earlier Pentagon deal with the company that was controversial for allegations of price-gouging.

The Pentagon's Defense Energy Support Center said it would award new contracts through a competitive bidding process. The move comes after the Pentagon awarded a unit of Halliburton, once headed by Vice President Dick Cheney, a no-bid contract in March to rebuild Iraq's oil industry. Halliburton shares fell 22 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $26.

16:45 12-31-03

Copyright 2004 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.



To: dkgross who wrote (125482)1/1/2004 6:48:08 PM
From: StocksDATsoar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 150070
 
Updated: 11:57 AM EST
Dow 10,000 May Be Ceiling for Years, History Shows
By Nick Olivari, Reuters

NEW YORK (Dec. 29) - Although the Dow has closed above 10,000 11 times so far this month, it's likely to be years before the oldest and most widely watched U.S. market measure stays over the mark without falling back.

In fact, the average could rise and fall from the 10,000 level a number of times before it enters a sustained upward rally, based on trading patterns seen when the 108-year-old Dow Jones industrial average first crossed the 100 mark and later surpassed 1,000.

"If there is a possible correlation, we can expect essentially a trading-range bound progression that could indeed last up to 20 years, or towards the years 2015-20," said Alan Shaw, a technical analyst at Smith Barney, in a recent study.

Checking Dow history, Shaw found the average first closed above what investors then must have viewed as the 'psychologically significant' 100 level in 1906.

But though it flirted with that dizzying height several times in subsequent years, it "proved a market ceiling until 1924," Shaw told clients.

During those 18 years before the average broke through 100 with conviction, Smith Barney counted five cyclical bear markets, a decline of 20 percent of more, and four cyclical bull markets, until the fourth matured into the bull trend of the 1920s.

HISTORY REPEATS

The pattern was repeated decades later when the 1,000 level became another tough sell to investors.

The average came within points of that milestone in February 1966 and again in December 1968, but only broke through that milestone in January 1973, according to Shaw.

Unfortunately, that marked the high water level until October 1982 when it closed above 1,000 and then rose above that level consistently for eight days, developing into the greatest bull market in U.S. history.

Like the 100 mark though, the 1,000 point level had been an upside barrier for 17 years, Shaw said, and investors endured another five bear markets and four bull markets.

Fast forward to 2003, and investors have seen just one bear market between the time the Dow first closed above 10,000 in 1999 and its return to those dizzying heights in recent weeks. While investors are confident that the most recent bear market has ended and the positive economic data will continue through 2004, they also believe much of the good news has already been priced in.

That's not to say that anyone is predicting a bear market anytime soon, but investors know that its going to be a hard slog to break above the Dow's closing high of 11,722.98 on Jan. 14, 2000.

12/29/03 10:28 ET

Copyright 2004 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.