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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TideGlider who wrote (518326)	1/1/2004 9:47:30 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

A Year To Clear The Decks By George F. Will Thursday, January 1, 2004; Page A25 Welcome to 2004, the year before. It is the year before the year in which Democrats probably will have one of their agonizing reappraisals. And it is the year before the year in which Republicans, having come to terms with the fact that the welfare state is here to stay, will prove that they are, or are not, serious about governing it. When you turned the page on the calendar Wednesday night, the first page of 2004 should have had printed on it -- in large letters, in red ink -- this insomnia-producing warning: "DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY AND IT IS NOW JUST FOUR YEARS BEFORE THE DEMOGRAPHIC DELUGE -- THE BEGINNING OF THE RETIREMENT OF 77 MILLION BABY BOOMERS." Fortunately, Democrats seem determined to nominate an angry apostle of reactionary liberalism, ready to die on the barricades in defense of the unsustainable Medicare and Social Security status quos. If Democrats do that, the electoral aftermath could be a creative moment for welfare state reform. Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964 created in Congress something that had not existed since 1938 -- a liberal legislative majority. It lasted only two years, but it did much. Howard Dean could be the catalyst of a conservative legislative majority which, although probably evanescent, might be emboldened to begin coming to grips with this: The baby boom generation is twice as large as the generation it follows and 50 percent larger than the one that is following it. By 2030 the nation's population will be older than Florida's is today. Unless there are politically difficult changes, such as raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties. To begin dealing with all this, President Bush needs two things. One is the emancipation from reelection concerns that comes with a second term (and the 22nd Amendment's foreclosing of a third). The other is an enlarged legislative majority to work with before he begins to be, after 2006, a seriously lame duck. Every president seeking a second term wants to have at his back the wind from three things -- a strong foreign policy, a strong economy and a weak opponent. The new year dawns with Democrats apparently determined to complete the wish list trifecta of the president they dislike more than any president since Richard Nixon. In 1972 they did Nixon the favor of nominating the opponent he would have chosen, George McGovern. If this year the Democratic Party marginalizes itself, it will give Bush a chance to broaden his presidency. Before Sept. 11, 2001, he had a minimalist presidency, symbolized by what he was doing when the planes struck the World Trade Center -- reading to some Florida grade school pupils. He had pleased his core supporters and fulfilled a campaign promise by cutting taxes. He had launched his initiative to involve "faith-based" institutions in the delivery of social services. He had formulated a sophisticated policy on stem cell research. But as late as 8:45 a.m. on Sept. 11, 2001, it was unclear what would be the important additional substance, if any, of his presidency. At 8:46 a.m. there was clarity. By then Bush had already begun taking Democratic issues off the 2004 table with the No Child Left Behind Act, which blurred traditional Democratic possession of the education issue. That bill became law just seven years after Republicans rode to a smashing victory in the 1994 elections promising, among many other things, to abolish the Department of Education. In 1996 Democrat Bill Clinton became the first president to sign a law repealing a major entitlement (Aid to Families with Dependent Children, repealed as part of welfare reform). And in 2003 his Republican successor signed a law creating a major entitlement (to prescription drug benefits). Regarding the post-New Deal role of the federal government, the differences between the parties have narrowed. There shall be an enormous federal role in assuaging the two great fears of life, illness and old age. The arguments are about modalities. But they are important arguments. They concern the feasible and proper role of individual choice in medical and retirement entitlements and the use of private retirement accounts to give Americans of modest means access to serious accumulation of funds over a lifetime. This could be the year before the year when Congress comes to grips with those arguments.

To: TideGlider who wrote (518326)	1/1/2004 10:07:32 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 769670

Crude futures fall modestly sfgate.com (12-31) 15:15 PST (AP) -- NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) -- Crude futures settled slightly lower Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, despite a greater-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories last week and traders' near certainty that OPEC won't boost output on high prices. However, trade volumes were light as many market participants remained on vacation for the holidays. The exchange closed early at 1 p.m. EST and will stay closed for the rest of the week. February light, sweet crude futures settled at $32.52 a barrel, falling 27 cents after trading in a 90-cent range. Commercial crude oil stocks fell 3.8 million barrels to 270.7 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 26, according to the Energy Information Administration. That surprised many analysts who forecast an average draw of only 1.5 million barrels. Crude initially rose on the storage data Wednesday morning, but small rises posted for distillate and gasoline inventories soon pressured Nymex prices into negative territory. Even so, industry analysts warned that the day's weak volumes belied a typical reaction to the draw, which leaves crude supplies 3 percent below year-ago levels and 9 percent below the five-year average. "I don't think the full effect of the numbers has seeped into the market yet," said DeCarlo Larry, a New York energy analyst for ABN Amro Inc., which provides commodity-brokerage services. He added that prices failed to reflect the draw's significance, but added that as traders begin to return from vacations next week, "we'll probably see a bullish reaction." Industry analysts are keeping a close eye on crude inventories as they near the 270-million-barrel mark, a level identified by the National Petroleum Council as tight for U.S. crude storage. Earlier Wednesday on London's International Petroleum Exchange, February Brent settled up 43 cents at $30.17 a barrel in a shortened holiday trading session. It will remain closed until Friday, during which another shortened session will be held, ending at 8 a.m. EST. The draw to U.S. oil supply becomes an even greater concern against the backdrop of OPEC's apparent unwillingness to increase crude output amid continued high prices, Larry said. Wednesday marked the 20th consecutive business day that the price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of crudes was above the cartel's targeted price band of $22-$28 a barrel. Under OPEC's own guidelines, 20 days above the range is a trigger for the group to act. The standard options call for either automatically supplying an extra 500,000 barrels a day to push prices down; an ad hoc release of a greater or lesser volume; or a decision to keep output unchanged if prices don't appear to reflect the need for more oil. With OPEC ministers repeatedly stating that high oil prices are the result of speculative buying interest and geopolitical jitters -- not tight supplies -- it doesn't seem they are willing to release more barrels onto the market. "The bottom line is, we aren't going to see something from OPEC right now," Larry said. However, Indonesia's oil minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, who assumes OPEC's presidency Thursday, said Wednesday the group will discuss whether it will change its targeted price band for crude in February. OPEC plans to hold a ministerial meeting in Algiers on Feb. 10 to review its oil-output policy. In products, heating oil and gasoline futures fell on the day, as data from the Energy Information Administration showed builds for both products. January heating oil futures settled down 1.67 cent, or 1.8 percent, at 91.27 cents a gallon, but held onto more than a cent of Tuesday's gains. The higher-volume February contract settled 1.81 cent lower at 91.46 cents a gallon. January gasoline futures settled down just 0.05 cent at 94.92 cents a gallon, retaining most of Tuesday's gains of nearly 4 cents. The higher-volume February contract settled 1.46 cent lower at 93.29 cents a gallon. Gasoline is keeping most of its strength on persistent demand, Larry said. "We haven't seen any detrimental effects on driving this season due to winter weather," he said. Natural gas for February delivery plunged 41.1 cents to settle at $6.189 per 1,000 cubic feet. With the front-month products contracts expiring Wednesday, February prices tend to give a better indication of where the market is heading, analysts say. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose 700,000 barrels to 129.1 million barrels last week, above energy analysts' expectations for a 420,000-barrel rise. In unleaded gasoline, U.S. inventories rose 600,000 barrels to 203.6 million barrels last week, surprising many analysts who expected a draw of 280,000 barrels on greater demand amid increased holiday motorist activity.