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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12881)1/2/2004 9:48:27 AM
From: Kirk ©  Respond to of 95530
 
It is not hard to be correct with statements such as this:

""It's unrealistic to expect a repeat of this year's performance," said Randall."

Hell, the biggest gains ALWAYS come off the bottom. My biggest gainer was CACS at 3200%. Other stocks: LRCX was up 199% and UTEK was up 198% according to your table. Intel doubled at 106% and even AMAT did well.

I'd be more than happy to just have these now beat the DOW for annual gains. Heck, I'll be happy if they go up period! We had great gains in 1999 only to see them evaporate betwen 2000 and 2002. Does ANYONE alive expect a repeat? No! (but we'll sure take it if it happens)

There is no way I expect CACS to deliver 3200% again nor do I expect a triple in UTEK or LRCX. Still, I bet a double in all three is possible if everything goes right. Perhaps it happens in months or years... but it should still beat Treasury bonds or money funds.

Look at CNBC. The guy they have on as I type is bragging saying "I avoided technology." It seems a rather foolish admission to me since those of us that bought the correct tech stocks cleaned house. Perhaps when we get folks like Kevin Landis guest co hosting is the time to worry? -snort [g]

Jeepers... CACS is up 4.9% 15 minutes into 2004... I guess people were not delaying to 2004 to sell to avoid short term cap gains taxes in 2003... Due to good results last yr.. that is now my largest holding. [g]



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12881)1/2/2004 1:08:56 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95530
 
From Briefing.com: 11:08AM Skyworks names Allan Kline as CFO (SWKS) 8.91 +0.21: Co announces it has appointed Allan M. Kline vice president and CFO effective Jan 5. Most recently Kline was CFO for Fibermark, and SWKS's current CFO Paul Vincent will continue with the company as vice president of finance.

10:23AM Nasdaq Composite vacillating just below high/resistance (COMPX) 2018 +15.50: -- Technical -- The index ran toward resistance mentioned in The Technical Take this morning in the 2018/2022 area in early action and paused but has retested following the data (session high 2020.59). While this zone has continued to hold firm, as long as the index is able to hold above the 2012/2010 area the door will be open to further short term upticks with next resistance is in the 2030/2035 area. Secondary support is at 2000/1996.

10:01AM ISM Manufacturing Index 66.2 vs 61.0 consensus :

9:58AM New switch should reduce BRCD's cost structure - Susquehanna 5.91 +0.13: Susquehanna raises their FY04 est to $0.12 from $0.10 (a penny above consensus), as their previously cautious view of Brocade is now more optimistic; firm says their sources indicate that the co's new Dazzler switch (due April/May) with a substantially reduced cost structure could improve Brocade's position to compete with Cisco and McData in the mid- to low-end of the Fibre Channel switch mkt.

9:50AM CTI Molecular probing Sep/Dec highs of 17.16/17.19 (CTMI) 17.14 +0.23: -- Technical -- This resistance marks the top of its five month trading range.

9:49AM 200 Day Alert -- Brocade (BRCD) 5.92 +0.14: -- Technical -- Stock gapped above its recent trading range but has thus far been stymied by resistance at its 200 day simple mov avg at 5.95 (session high 5.95). This avg capped the upside during the initial Dec recovery attempt.

9:31AM CCMP estimates raised at Lehman 50.06 +1.06: Lehman maintains their Overweight rating and $79 target on Cabot Micro, and raises their Q4 and Q1 ests a penny above consensus each; firm says that investors have been selling the shares since the Oct conference call due to concerns about whether copper slurry revs rebounded after a disappointing Q3, as well as the co's lack of guidance. However, firm thinks copper revs rebounded, which should provide a positive catalyst for the stock. Firm also thinks the shares are cheap at 20x their CY04 EPS est.

8:46AM Agere Systems acquires TeraBlaze for $21 mln (AGR.A) 3.05: Co announces that it has acquired TeraBlaze, a privately-held developer of Gigabit Ethernet switching products. This acquisition will enable Agere to provide single-chip GbE products to equipment providers addressing SOHO (small office, home office) and enterprise applications. It was a stock transaction for approximately 6.92 mln shares of Agere Class A common stock, valued at about $21 mln.

8:24AM Advanced Power sees Q4 revs above prior guidance (APTI) 8.64: Company now sees Q4 revenues of $12.4 mln, vs the First Call consensus of $11.8 mln and above upper end of previously guided revs of $11.5-12.0 mln, due to increased customer order levels. Co also states that its book-to-bill ratio in Q403 was expected to close at approx 1.23, compared to book-to-bill ratio of 0.85 in Q3.

8:18AM CA target raised to $31 at Piper Jaffray 27.34: Piper Jaffray maintains their Outperform rating on Computer Assoc and raises their target to $31 from $28, as they expect Dec qtr revs to beat mgmt's guidance of $797-$817 mln, and expect the co to meaningfully beat FY05 consensus of $0.90 due to increasing subscription rev.

7:34AM December CIO Poll suggests promising 2004 IT spending outlook - Deutsche : Deutsche Securities says that the Dec CIO Magazine Tech Poll suggests that overall IT spending is likely to gradually improve throughout 2004, albeit at modest levels; while the exact timing and magnitude of the pickup remain debatable, firm is optimistic about a turnaround over the next several months and believes that Q4 will experience relatively typical seasonality. Firm says CIOs are expecting an increase of about 6.0% in IT budget growth, up from 4.2% in Nov and flat with Oct. While the overall outlook has moved around modestly over the past three months, firm believes that spending intentions by CIOs are finally starting to stabilize and they remain optimistic that spending is likely to resume in early-2004.

7:31AM SIA data roughly in line with forecast -- JP Morgan : JP Morgan says that SIA data reported Wednesday was roughly in line with firm's forecasts. SIA announced that three-month-rolling average sales for Nov increased 25.7% YoY to $16.1 bln, YoY growth and up from the 23.3% YoY increase in Octr. November sales were $15.7 bln, and increased 2.9% MoM from $15.3 billion in Oct. Given in line numbers, firm is maintaining its 2003 semiconductor sales forecast of $166.4 bln or an 18% YoY increase.

7:27AM Tower Semicon signs long-term manufacturing deal with Siliconix (TSEM) 7.89: Company, along with Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) subsidiary Siliconix Inc.(SILI), announce a memorandum of understanding for long-term manufacturing and supply arrangement between the parties. SILI will place with TSEM orders valued at approx $200 mln for the purchase of semiconductor wafers to be manufactured in Tower's Fab 1 over 7-10 year period, of which approx $53 mln is guaranteed and will be delivered over 3 yr period starting at the first anniversary of a definitive agreement which is expected to be signed during Q1 of 2004.

finance.yahoo.com



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12881)1/4/2004 2:10:02 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95530
 
This is the weekly update for the Group. Not much action this past week. The Group is up 2 percent, the SOX is up 1 percent and the NASDAQ is up 2 percent. ATMI led the Group with an 8 percent gain.


-     12/26/03 01/02/04	       FST CALL NEXT  FST CALL
-	CLOSE	CLOSE  PERCENT NXT YR	YEAR  LNG TRM
SYMBOL	PRICE	PRICE  CHANGE	EARN	 PE   GROWTH	PEG
ATMI	21.70	23.40	  8	0.44	 53	19	2.75
SMTL	10.47	10.98	  5	0.68	 16	15	1.08
BRKS	23.25	24.25	  4	1.13	 21	16	1.38
ASYT	16.57	17.25	  4	0.57	 30	19	1.60
DPMI	23.63	24.38	  3	0.49	 50	25	1.99
ASML	19.95	20.53	  3	0.45	 46	14	3.26
PLAB	19.40	19.93	  3	1.08	 18	17	1.10
NVLS*	40.71	41.82	  3	0.81	 52	20	2.63
COHU	19.15	19.60	  2	0.58	 34
HELX	20.09	20.54	  2	0.47	 44	15	2.91
UTEK	29.18	29.68	  2	0.75	 40	27	1.48
CMOS	13.02	13.24	  2	0.80	 17	17	0.99
TER*	24.85	25.15	  1	0.52	 48	17	2.93
EGLS	 3.51	3.55	  1    -1.00		22
PHTN	39.47	39.85	  1	1.27	 31	22	1.43
VECO	28.12	28.35	  1	0.66	 43	17	2.58
LTXX	14.91	14.99	  1	0.71	 21	18	1.17
LRCX	31.62	31.71	  0	1.10	 29	20	1.44
CYMI	45.23	45.27	  0	0.94	 48	27	1.82
KLAC*	56.58	56.44	  0	1.84	 31	20	1.52
AMAT*	22.17	22.10	  0	0.95	 23	19	1.26
KLIC	14.16	14.05	 -1	1.23	 11	18	0.65
FSII	 7.34	 7.27	 -1	0.41	 18	22	0.82
MTSN	12.18	12.02	 -1	0.36	 33
WFR	 9.70	 9.57	 -1	0.61	 16	11	1.47
TOTALS 566.96  575.92	  2    17.85
SOX-X  498.69  504.85	  1
COMPQX1973.14 2006.68	  2
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX


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