Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Kelly who wrote (15839)	1/2/2004 4:01:12 PM
From: Gus	Respond to of 17183

After handily outperforming the various indexes last year, EMC and most storage stocks are off to a good start in the new year. 1Q2004 will be the first full quarter including Legato (~$320M-$400M/year run rate) and Documentum ($~$300M-$400M/year run rate). 2Q2004 will be the first full quarter including VMWare ($175M-$200M run rate). EMC also has major software product rollouts during 1H2004 in addition to the routine hardware refinements. Both IBM and HDS experienced a surge in hardware sales during the two quarters preceding the 1Q2003 introduction of DMX. Now the tables are turned. Both IBM and HDS have major hardware upgrades scheduled for 1H2004 and I expect that EMC will experience a similar surge in sales, if not stronger, since EMC's technical vision is now vastly superior and more visible than it was just 12 months ago. There are more questions about the IBM upgrade than the HDS upgrade, but I think the inherent weakness of HDS' software strategy will become more apparent once they roll out their new platform. As goes HDS so goes SUNW and HPQ. As things currently stand, EMC's ability to consistently convert sales to operating cash flow is trailing Oracle but leading SAP, both pure enterprise software companies. I continue to think that EMC's market cap will eventually move somewhere in between the market caps of these two companies in the next 18-36 months.