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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (28695)	1/2/2004 6:27:34 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206214

I looked at RJ weekly NG review PDF.....last year withdrawal for same week was 123....but with 30 more degree days....assuming winter demand is about 2 bcf/degree day.....but probably more like 1.5 for holiday week...so 80 really doesn't seem that out of line to me...I don't know why the WS anal-ysts had such high estimates. KJ

To: Tommaso who wrote (28695)	1/2/2004 7:28:57 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206214

Tommaso, one just has to look at the second week of the holiday season last year to state that many are overreacting to and drawing incorrect conclusions (about lost demand due to high prices) from last week's 80BCF draw. For the week ending 1/3/03 (the second week of last year's holiday season) we had 178 HDD and a draw of 86BCF. For the storage report released last week we had 174 HDD and a draw of 80BCF. Thus, similar and very low HDD during a holiday week produced similar draws. We all know that once we got normal to above normal HDD in Jan and Feb of last year, the so-called weather adjusted draws surprised the heck out of traders and Wall Street. Given some high HDD being forecasted in the coming weeks are we about to see it happen once again???