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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (22910)	1/4/2004 9:34:26 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 793681

Like you, I think it probable bin Laden is dead under some rocks in Afghanistan but that's not been confirmed. I also think he miscalculated the effect of 9/11. However, if he survived the US response he may have radically recalculated his tactics and strategy. He is a systematic and patient thinker - in terms of tactics,anyway - his attacks have long planning periods and and careful training and positioning of men and material. He is also persistent. He not only revisited the WTC, he also elaborated it to include an attack on the US government and its defense headquarters. From all accounts, Zawahiri is also like this and might even be the more dangerous thinker and he definitely is alive. If the above is approximately correct, then bin Laden, if alive, is certainly capable of overcoming, or at least channelling, his vanity and going to ground, and rethinking tactics (and possibly strategy) from ground, leaving it to local and now unconnected branches to do local attacks such as Bali, Morrocco, etc. while he concentrates on again attacking the main enemy - US and Saudi royal family - in a large way. This is where his interests and those of Iranian mullocracy intersect - neither want to see the US successful in Iraq or Afghanistan, both have designs on Mecca, both would like to see a disaster on US soil. At a minimum, al Qaida, will have a branch in Iran which is condoned, if not aided by the mullocracy, which is dedicated to attacking in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. So this doesn't seem unreasonable: Indeed, the Saudi newspaper Okaz reported Nov. 21 that the bombing of a residential compound in Riyadh two weeks earlier had been orchestrated by al-Qaida from Iran. "[Saudi intelligence] sources said [al-Qaida security chief] Saif al-Adel led the bombing operation of the Muhaya residential compound, using a Thuraya [satellite] phone to give instructions to the terrorists in the kingdom who carried out the criminal operation," Okaz said. If they could negotiate it, Iran would be a more secure refuge for Zawahiri and/or bin Laden than most other places, even Pakistan, where US forces move fairly easily.