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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (4347)	1/4/2004 11:34:37 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

If that (severe money supply decline) wasn't enough, we now have the potential (if my man Bastardi is correct) for a massive cold wave developing on the energy front. Message 19651733 I will use this period to distribute virtually all my large energy stock holdings and remaining PM positions. Depending on the timing of the next surge of IPOs, secondaries, and insider selling, I don't expect the stock market (and that includes energy, PMs, foreign, commodity related)to make it too far into February alive, and I have my doubts about January. It's interesting that since this TrimTabs 12-8 lagged comment, Message 19634699 the fund inflows only clicked in at $6.6 billion for the last four weeks. And 45% of this went to non-domestic funds. amgdata.com That's way down. Insider selling (reported by Thomson) for the last week of December was over $3.0 billion, a remarkable number given that the assumption was they would wait until 04. When the supply comes later in the month, the market will be swamped. Biderman also believes $50 billion will need to be sold to pay taxes on 03 gains. For early January watch the OMO number. newyorkfed.org Coming due: Message 19649651 Bullandbear site hasn't been updating, but maybe will? bullandbearwise.com New AMG fund data comes out Thursday evening, and if it's another ho-hum $1.5 billion or less. Sentiment is already bearish. sentimentrader.com Will the bond market break down in early January? Are more rabbit pulls possible after the inflationary ISM report? Message 19647381 Homebuilders are rolling over. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc20]&pref=G

To: austrieconomist who wrote (4347)	1/13/2004 9:37:08 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

I'd like to respond to your market timing points here, with my checklist: I think the liquidity supply- demand indicators used by Biderman's TrimTabs will be the most useful for calling this move, or a reversal. I've been posting commentary on this. He is focused on: 1. fund flows (now getting more erratic, and lately has been decoyed into foreign markets). amgdata.com 2. Insider selling (has run very high, paused now until earnings are out, should kick back in with a vengeance in late Jan.) insider.thomsonfn.com 3. the underwriting calendar, he says starting up mid-Jan, although through today I'm not seeing much there yet. Other indicators: An increasing driver IMO is: 4. Margin usage, but that just fuels the existing trend. Once trend reverses, it will amplify the down turn as well. Right this moment, I think this is the main "liqidity driver" of the market's strength. I'm also watching 5. Fed activity through it's OMO. If they run over $35b, a correction will have a hard time getting traction. Today they are at only 25 1/2. Fed's been erratic. They've done two drains this month which is unusual. bullandbearwise.com 6. I'm still throwing investor sentiment in the mix, using this matrix. sentimentrader.com 7. Fundamentally energy prices and rates are a factor as well. I think $35 oil is going to be murder. My short outlook is bearish, long term very bearish. We may need to get the insiders and IPOs cranking out supply to get downward traction however. That's just a week or two away from gearing up.