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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (4358)	1/4/2004 4:41:49 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Tip, nice post. There are definitely debt and RE bubbles. I think it's impossible to call the top in either. I like BCA 2004 outlook bcaoutlook.com that Russ pointed in #reply-19631673 as it's very balanced and they look at the today's problems from long term perspective. The main question I ask myself: Can the debt and RE bubbles persist for another year? Two years? Three years? My answer: Why not? From BCA 2004 outlook: Debt Fears Are Nothing New Consumer short-term debt...is approaching a historical turning point. Having risen at an abnormally fast rate for ten years, it must soon adjust itself to the nation's apacity for going into hock...which is not limitless. Whether the rate of growth in consumer debt will slow down is no longer the question...it must slow down. Fortune Magazine, March 1956 Federal Reserve Chairman G. William Miller said the average American buyer is getting dangerously deep in debt, and warned that the trend could have serious consequences. Several of the nationís business leaders said they share Miller's alarm over the level to which consumer debts have climbed. Washington Post, October 1978