To: Elmer Flugum who wrote (4176 ) 1/8/2004 5:06:07 AM From: GUSTAVE JAEGER Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22250 The Mideast musical chairs' gonna wind up with an anticlimax of sorts.... When the music stops, Syria and Turkey will sit together, Iran and Egypt will be closer, even Pakistan will share a seat with India... and guess who'll be left alone?Thu., January 08, 2004 Tevet 14, 5764 The Israeli [isolation] The political developments evident in the Middle East in recent weeks are creating the impression that the region is on the verge of a new order of forces. It's still too soon to speak of an overall strategic arrangement deserving of the title of a "New Middle East," but the early signs cannot be ignored, and certainly not scorned. The official visit by Syrian President Bashar Assad to Turkey, at a time when Ankara is strengthening its ties with Jerusalem, could be evidence of a maturation of Syrian readiness to give up past precepts under which a country that is friendly with Israel cannot be a friend of Syria. The important developments between Iran and Egypt should also be viewed in the same light. The expected renewal of diplomatic relations between these two countries indicates an Iranian understanding that the first Arab state to sign a peace treaty with Israel is not necessarily an enemy of Iran. Even the desire to punish Egypt for its support for Iraq during the first Gulf War is not enough of an excuse in light of the new circumstances in the Middle East. From the other side of the Middle East, the contacts between Israeli and Libyan representatives, including Libyan ruler Muammar Gadhafi's son, could lead to a dramatic change that would have influence far beyond the bilateral relationship between Jerusalem and Tripoli. Each of the above three states, Syria, Iran and Libya, which together formed a kind of Middle Eastern "axis of evil," now seeks to assuage global concern, and particularly Western worry, showing that they have abandoned or plan to abandon their old ways and to quickly join the family of nations. Iran signed the additional protocol of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is ready for a serious dialogue with the U.S.; Libya is giving up its weapons of mass destruction; and Syria is once again proposing a return to the negotiating table with Israel to solve the conflicts between them. Behind these developments are the winds of the results of the war against Iraq; and even if Baghdad has yet to decide on its policy regarding Israel, it is not expected to hurry to renew the anti-Israel policy fostered by Saddam Hussein. In contrast to all this, Israel appears to be wallowing in the mud of a tribal conflict, not allowing any of these regional developments to get in the way. Israel's fixation with the Palestinian conflict blocks any attempt to seriously examine Assad's proposal, or to offer a realistic plan to solve the conflict. Instead of examining ways and means to become part of the new moves in the Middle East, Israel is busy keeping score of winning and losing points. Thus, while countries in the region are trying to build a new strategic order, Israeli inactivity could leave it behind and isolated, just when the era invites new opportunities.haaretz.com Is that the "New Middle East" envisioned and cheered by George W. Bush? That is, a Mideast where former Arab/Muslim arch-foes have buried their dissensions... at the expense of Israel? Oh well, I guess "Al-Qaeda-Gladio" will strike in Turkey, Egypt, and Lebanon very soon.... Gus