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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: lurqer who wrote (34235)1/4/2004 9:28:16 PM
From: Selectric II  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
You need to see the big picture, lurqer.

quote.bloomberg.com

Dollar Falls to Record Against Euro After Bernanke's Comments
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro in Asia after Federal Reserve Governor Ben S. Bernanke said the risk of a dollar crisis is ``quite low'' and that valuing the currency only against the euro may be ``misleading.''

``Looking at movements of the dollar against a single currency can be misleading about overall trends,'' Bernanke said in the text of a speech to the American Economic Association's annual meeting in San Diego. ``Broader measures of dollar strength show somewhat less of a decline.''

Against the dollar, the euro rose 20 percent last year after the Fed said it can keep rates low well into 2004. Bernanke's comments suggested Fed policy makers aren't concerned the dollar's decline will stoke inflation, forcing the central bank to raise rates.

Bernanke's comments ``suggested the U.S. will maintain the low interest rates for a while, triggering a new round of dollar selling on the first trading day of the year'' in Japan, said Kikuko Takeda, manager of the foreign exchange and treasury division at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., a unit of Japan's third-biggest lender.

The U.S. currency weakened to $1.2653 per euro at 10:25 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2585 late Friday in New York after sinking to a record low $1.2672. The dollar may drop to as much as $1.29 per euro at the end of March, Takeda said. The dollar was also at 106.91 yen from 107.07.

The European Central Bank, whose benchmark rate is twice the Fed's 1 percent interest rate target for overnight loans, suggested it's comfortable with the currency's advance. Bernanke's currency comments were included in his remarks about the outlook for inflation and Fed interest-rate policy.

Inflation Impact

The dollar's decline, which makes overseas goods more expensive for Americans to buy, should not raise inflation expectations because imports have only a ``modest'' weight in the goods and services, purchased by consumers, Bernanke said.

``The direct effects of dollar depreciation on inflation, like those of commodity price increases, appear to be relatively small,'' Bernanke said. A 10 percent decline in the broad value of the dollar might push up consumer prices, not the inflation rate, by just 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent over time, he said.

Trade Weighting

Judging the dollar's strength or weakness solely against the euro may also be ``misleading,'' because its value against the currencies of major trading partners remains about 7 percent above its average in the 1990s and 17 percent above the low it reached in 1995, Bernanke said.

U.S. President George W. Bush's administration is untroubled by the dollar's decline, which may help boost sales and manufacturing jobs in an election year without an acceleration of inflation or higher interest rates.

Signaling tolerance, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told Bloomberg News last month the currency's drop had been ``orderly.'' While he and Bush regularly endorse a ``strong dollar'' they say they want markets, not governments, to set exchange rates.

Compared with the euro's gain against the dollar last year, the yen's rise versus the U.S. currency was smaller at 11 percent in part as Japan spent more than 20 trillion yen ($187 billion) to stem the appreciation that threatens the export-led recovery.

Mizoguchi

Zembei Mizoguchi, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Japan will sell its currency if necessary.

``We will keep a close watch on the market to ensure there won't be excessive fluctuations and overshooting,'' Mizoguchi told reporters at the Ministry of Finance. ``We will take action as needed.''

The stronger yen risks eroding demand for Japanese exports. The world's second-largest economy will expand 1.8 percent in the year starting April 1 as companies increase spending and exports rise, the government said on Dec. 19.

Toshiba Corp., the world's third-largest chipmaker, predicted the yen's exchange rate would average 115 in the second half of the fiscal year that ends March 31. Nissan Motor Co. forecast a rate of 110. Many Japanese companies gave projections when they reported earnings for the six months ended Sept. 30.

Japanese Stocks

The dollar may also drop against the yen on speculation overseas investors will extend their purchases of Japanese shares this year.

Japan's currency climbed 11 percent last year against the dollar as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 24 percent, the first gain in four years. The benchmark stock index rose as much as 1.6 percent on the first trading day of the year in Japan.

``Overseas investors look bullish on Japanese equities, setting up the ground for the yen to gain further,'' said Minoru Shioiri, foreign exchange manager in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co.

The dollar may drop below 105 in the first quarter, Shioiri said.

Last Updated: January 4, 2004 20:29 EST





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To: lurqer who wrote (34235)1/4/2004 10:08:49 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
While trying to learn more about the current and future status of Kurdish autonomy, I came across this

Saddam’s capture: was a deal brokered behind the scenes?

When it emerged that the Kurds had captured the Iraqi dictator, the US celebrations evaporated.
David Pratt asks whether a secret political trade-off has been engineered


For a story that three weeks ago gripped the world’s imagination, it has now all but dropped off the radar.
Peculiar really, for if one thing might have been expected in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s capture, it was the endless political and media mileage that the Bush administration would get out of it .

After all, for 249 days Saddam’s elusiveness had been a symbol of America’s ineptitude in Iraq, and, at last, with his capture came the long-awaited chance to return some flak to the Pentagon’s critics.

It also afforded the opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of America’s elite covert and intelligence units such as Task Force 20 and Greyfox .

And it was a terrific chance for the perfect photo-op showing the American soldier, and Time magazine’s “Person of the Year”, hauling “High Value Target Number One” out of his filthy spiderhole in the village of al-Dwar.

Then along came that story: the one about the Kurds beating the US Army in the race to find Saddam first, and details of Operation Red Dawn suddenly began to evaporate.

US Army spokesmen – so effusive in the immediate wake of Saddam’s capture – no longer seemed willing to comment, or simply went to ground.

But rumours of the crucial Kurdish role persisted, even though it now seems their previously euphoric spokesmen have now, similarly, been afflicted by an inexplicable bout of reticence.

It was two weeks ago that the Sunday Herald revealed how a Kurdish special forces unit belonging to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) had spearheaded and tracked down Saddam, sealing off the al-Dwar farmhouse long “before the arrival of the US forces”.

PUK leader Jalal Talabani had chosen to leak the news and details of the operation’s commander, Qusrut Rasul Ali, to the Iranian media long before Saddam’s capture was reported by the mainstream Western press or confirmed by the US military.

By the time Western press agencies were running the same story, the entire emphasis had changed however, and the ousted Iraqi president had been “captured in a raid by US forces backed by Kurdish fighters”.

In the intervening few weeks that troublesome Kurdish story has gone around the globe, picked up by newspapers from The Sydney Morning Herald to the US Christian Science Monitor, as well as the Kurdish press.

While Washington and the PUK remain schtum, further confirmation that the Kurds were way ahead in Saddam’s capture continues to leak out.

According to one Israeli source who was in the company of Kurds at a meeting in Athens early on December 14, one of the Kurdish representatives burst into the conference room in tears and demanded an immediate halt to the discussions.

“Saddam Hussein has been captured,” he said, adding that he had received word from Kurdistan – before any television reports.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the delegate also confirmed that most of the information leading to the deposed dictator’s arrest had come from the Kurds and – as our earlier Sunday Herald report revealed – who had organised their own intelligence network which had been trying to uncover Saddam’s tracks for months.

The delegate further claimed that six months earlier the Kurds had discovered that Saddam’s wife was in the Tikrit area. This intelligence, most likely obtained by Qusrut Rasul Ali and his PUK special forces unit, was transferred to the Americans. The Kurds, however, are said to have never received any follow-up from the coalition forces on this vital tip-off and were furious.

Whatever the full extent of their undoubted involvement in providing intelligence or actively participating on the ground in Saddam’s capture, the Kurds, and the PUK in particular, would benefit handsomely.

Apart from a trifling $25 million bounty, their status would have been substantially boosted in Washington, which may in part explain the recent vociferous Kurdish reassertion of their long-term political ambitions in the “new Iraq”.

For their own part the Kurds have already launched a political arrangement designed to secure their aspirations with respect to autonomy, if not nationalist or separatist aspirations.

To show how serious they are, the two main Kurdish groups, the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), have decided to close ranks and set up a joint Kurdish administration, with jobs being divided between the two camps. They have made it clear to the Americans that their leadership has a responsibility to their constituency.

Last week Massoud Barzani, leader of the KDP, called for a revision of the power-transfer agreement signed between the US-led coalition and Iraq’s interim governing council to recognise “Kurdish rights”.

The November 15 agreement calls for the creation of a national assembly by the end of May 2004 which will put in place a caretaker government by June, which in turn will draft a new constitution and hold national elections

“The November 15 accord must be revised and ‘Kurdish rights’ within an Iraqi federation must be mentioned,” Barzani told a meeting of his supporters.

“The Kurds are today in a powerful position but must continue the struggle to guard their unity,” he added.

This renewed determination to fulfil their political objectives is shaking up other ethnic residents in northern Iraq, who fear at best being marginalised; at worst victimised. Over the last week there have been increasingly violent clashes between Kurdish and Arab students, and between Kurds and Turkemens, in the oil rich city of Kirkuk.

Such ethnic confrontations point to another dangerous phase in Iraq’s power-brokering. If the Kurds did indeed capture Saddam first, and a deal was struck about his handover to the US, then it’s not inconceivable that the terms might have included strong political and strategic advantages that could ultimately determine the emerging power structure in Iraq.

sundayherald.com

lurqer



To: lurqer who wrote (34235)1/5/2004 1:27:07 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
focus on the topics and terms used by Greeny & Bernanke

they talk about low risk of inflation
and about low risk of USDollar crisis

BOTH WILL HAPPEN, AND HAPPEN BIG
GREENSPASM HAS GOTTEN NOTHING RIGHT IN 10 YEARS

/ jim