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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12910)	1/4/2004 11:01:04 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

>> The falling dollar is not necessarily a negative. Briefing.com thinks the falling dollar is "much ado about nothing" and may turn out to be a net positive. Don, They're nuts. And wrong, too. The causes of the dollar's fall will bring higher interest rates, higher energy prices. Higher imported goods prices. And higher inflation. I don't think today's P/E's can stand if investors could get 6% on insured certificates of deposit. Re jitters. Actually, yes. I'm getting jittery. My account was up approx 80% last year. I've gained and lost similar amounts several times in the past few years. But this time I'd like to keep it. I really thought the high in the nasdaq would correspond to highs in electronics stocks. Unfortunately my stocks had peaked ahead of nasdaq, then declined. I'm hoping WDC and LSI will catch up as nasdaq gets its last hurrah. The memory of Fed rates hike is not from 17 years ago. It is from Feb '94 when the Fed hiked from 3.00% to 3.25. It was a downer all year in both stocks and bonds. I think we had an excellent ride for a year. However it will be all for naught if allowed to evaporate. With all that, I do expect that all concerned will make the right sort of noises to push stocks prices a little higher. How high and when ? That's the question. Just my thoughts. You know I had been very positive on stocks for over a year. But I'm now just trying to pick an exit point. My outlook continues to be that financial institutions pump up stocks to lure in lay investors. Then distribute stocks to them. Then prices drop (or sometimes collapse). I think we're getting close to the distribution point. For me, this view will be confirmed when we see increase in IPO's. That's the ultimate distribution. Sarmad

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12910)	1/5/2004 3:14:44 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Hey Don, looks like you got this right so far! <<The best money will be made by those who are willing to trade ranges due to an upcoming increase in market volatility.>> investorshub.com I certainly agree with that sentiment. The real big percentage gains were made last year by either holding from October 2002 or March of 2003. I think it is going to be another good year, but not with the percentage gains that were made last year. I don't claim to be as up on the market indicators as you are, but I think January(at least the first part) should be very good. Many are expecting a couple of good days here, then a slight retrenchment, and then some more upside. I don't take issue with that particularly, but I do think that by the middle of January, the semiconductor, semi-equip and telecom equipment areas, plus the NASDAQ in general, will do quite well. My primary reason for this position is by looking at the earnings estimates for the semi-equip and SOX areas. As we are all aware, the runup in these stocks have been spectacular. Since September, however, the rise in the semi-equip stocks has been very modest and have trailed the SOX and NASDAQ(in which gains have also been relatively modest). Also, in the last quarter, earnings estimates have been rising, but not in a "big" way. As a result, I think that when the earnings report begin, a lot of positive spin will be generated. Most importantly, it will give the CEO's an opportunity to prognosticate the future outlook which should be looking very good. In essence, I find it hard to believe that any down movement in the market will go very far given the "rosy" outlook. Earnings estimates should be picking up "big time" with the January earnings report and "looks" into the rest of the year. But, as always, I have been wrong many times before.;-) Don