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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (26422)	1/6/2004 8:00:30 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I can't wave a wand and create the conditions for lucrative trades. The conditions that set up the big banger trades in the sector from 01, 02, and early 03 were extreme neglect (few were playing the right playbook), very low valuations, leverage to an up move in POG. I just don't see that existing right now, and if I miss the last "speculative" fifth of the monster move (which apparently I may have) so be it, as I was certainly satiated enough for an investment half life by the first four fifths of this gold bull market. I sure can't complain. I do still hold about 20% of the very large former positions I had until Sept-Oct. Mostly this is because of tax holding considerations, and the "American" restrictions (for instance one full year on the warrants I exercised on WTZ last January, lucky I guess) put on the private placements I took on in the gift days. Pretty good article here on the sector: kitco.com There are a lot of market participants on the same page (betting on extended periods of low US interest rates and reflation) now on these commodity carry trades (reverse of three years ago). That means these same playbook trades could be "playing with fire" situations, should the consensus even be modestly wrong. I do think PMs will be vulnerable once rates head higher, which I expect sooner rather than later.