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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (34333)1/6/2004 9:23:08 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467
 
the USDollar crisis in exactly on schedule
as I forecasted and laid out in early 2002
20-22 months later, all is occurring closely to expectation

with US mfg base shipped to Asia, no industrial mechanism to stop the US$ decline vicious circle
with US Fed in constant intervention mode, no monetary mechanism to stop the US$ decline vicious circle
trade gap will continue to hemorrhage
poor interest rate differential will continue to fail in attraction

we should get some trade numbers soon
somewhere around high 30's to $40B in a single month
that is a death march in capital flow, which is the most recent urgent death knell signal overlooked

we now have the following at multi-year highs:
gold
silver
copper
jyen
euro
bpound sterling
soybeans

with crude oil and natgas pushing high levels

the reflation effort is a near total failure
they just havent realized that yet
the Greenspasm Gambit is to inflate inflate inflate, with the hope of reducing debts and restoring pricing power
so far no evidence of success, although some deceptive claims in support
I expect the LT interest rate picture to deteriorate soon, which will contradict the Gambit success claims

/ jim

p.s. as for trips, might do a Sunday River Maine ski trip in about one month



To: stockman_scott who wrote (34333)1/6/2004 10:08:34 AM
From: Sully-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
The Era of Distortion
By DAVID BROOKS
The New York Times

Do you ever get the sense the whole world is becoming unhinged from reality? I started feeling that way awhile ago, when I was still working for The Weekly Standard and all these articles began appearing about how Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Doug Feith, Bill Kristol and a bunch of "neoconservatives" at the magazine had taken over U.S. foreign policy.

Theories about the tightly knit neocon cabal came in waves. One day you read that neocons were pushing plans to finish off Iraq and move into Syria. Web sites appeared detailing neocon conspiracies; my favorite described a neocon outing organized by Dick Cheney to hunt for humans. The Asian press had the most lurid stories; the European press the most thorough. Every day, it seemed, Le Monde or some deep-thinking German paper would have an exposé on the neocon cabal, complete with charts connecting all the conspirators.

The full-mooners fixated on a think tank called the
Project for the New American Century, which has a staff of
five and issues memos on foreign policy. To hear these
people describe it, PNAC is sort of a Yiddish Trilateral
Commission, the nexus of the sprawling neocon tentacles.

We'd sit around the magazine guffawing at the ludicrous stories that kept sprouting, but belief in shadowy neocon influence has now hardened into common knowledge. Wesley Clark, among others, cannot go a week without bringing it up.

In truth, the people labeled neocons (con is short for "conservative" and neo is short for "Jewish") travel in widely different circles and don't actually have much contact with one another. The ones outside government have almost no contact with President Bush. There have been hundreds of references, for example, to Richard Perle's insidious power over administration policy, but I've been told by senior administration officials that he has had no significant meetings with Bush or Cheney since they assumed office. If he's shaping their decisions, he must be microwaving his ideas into their fillings.

It's true that both Bush and the people labeled neocons
agree that Saddam Hussein represented a unique threat to
world peace. But correlation does not mean causation. All
evidence suggests that Bush formed his conclusions
independently. Besides, if he wanted to follow the neocon
line, Bush wouldn't know where to turn because while the
neocons agree on Saddam, they disagree vituperatively on
just about everything else. (If you ever read a sentence
that starts with "Neocons believe," there is a 99.44
percent chance everything else in that sentence will be
untrue.)

Still, there are apparently millions of people who cling to the notion that the world is controlled by well-organized and malevolent forces. And for a subset of these people, Jews are a handy explanation for everything.

There's something else going on, too. The proliferation of media outlets and the segmentation of society have meant that it's much easier for people to hive themselves off into like-minded cliques. Some people live in towns where nobody likes President Bush. Others listen to radio networks where nobody likes Bill Clinton.

In these communities, half-truths get circulated and
exaggerated. Dark accusations are believed because it is
delicious to believe them. Vince Foster was murdered. The
Saudis warned the Bush administration before Sept. 11.

You get to choose your own reality. You get to believe
what makes you feel good. You can ignore inconvenient
facts so rigorously that your picture of the world is one
big distortion.

And if you can give your foes a collective name — liberals, fundamentalists or neocons — you can rob them of their individual humanity. All inhibitions are removed. You can say anything about them. You get to feed off their villainy and luxuriate in your own contrasting virtue. You will find books, blowhards and candidates playing to your delusions, and you can emigrate to your own version of Planet Chomsky. You can live there unburdened by ambiguity.

Improvements in information technology have not made
public debate more realistic. On the contrary, anti-
Semitism is resurgent. Conspiracy theories are prevalent.
Partisanship has left many people unhinged.

Welcome to election year, 2004.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company

nytimes.com.



To: stockman_scott who wrote (34333)1/6/2004 1:02:49 PM
From: abuelita  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 89467
 
s2-

happy new year! it's snowing here too.
its good weather to stay in and read books
- like john le carré's new book absolute friends
it's going to be another goodie. here's an excerpt
from a recent interview with him:

"When it's recalled to him that Bush and Sharon were both elected and can be replaced by voters, while the likes of Saddam Hussein rule as despots for decades, le Carré shoots back: "Do you suppose that Bush was legally elected? Do you suppose that it is democratic to dismantle rights in America that the forefathers of the present politicians fought for bitterly? Do you suppose we're offering a democratic example through Guantanamo? Do you think it democratic to lie, persistently and deliberately, to a population that has elected, or not elected, you?"

"So don't please fall into the trap of believing this is a battle between the civilized and the uncivilized world. That's the first colonial misconception. This is a battle between hyperpower and non-hyperpower. It's a battle between majorities and minorities. Never was there such an unequal war fought on such spurious grounds in my memory, except possibly if we go back to Suez."

globeandmail.ca

stay warm today.

-r1