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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4469)	1/6/2004 10:58:13 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Overdue Credit-Card Bills Reach New High in Quarter WASHINGTON -- The percentage of customers opening past-due credit-card bills hit a record high in the third quarter of 2003, the American Bankers Association said Tuesday. But when viewed as a percentage of total dollars outstanding, those bills might be a little easier to stomach. A seasonally-adjusted 4.09% of credit-card accounts were past due in the third quarter, up from 4.04% in the second quarter and from 4% a year earlier. As a percentage of total dollars outstanding, rather than number of accounts, the third-quarter credit-card delinquency rate reached an unadjusted 4.66%, well below the record of 5.45% set in 1996 but up from 4.51% in the second quarter and 4.45% a year earlier. Credit-card delinquencies are likely to stay high until the job market improves, said ABA chief economist James Chessen. The third quarter's rapid economic growth could be a sign that improvement is around the corner, but many households are still struggling, he said. "The job market has been flying against strong headwinds, lengthening the time between jobs and intensifying financial stress," Mr. Chessen said. Delinquency rates also rose for direct auto loans and home-equity loans. But fewer indirect auto loans, personal loans and home-equity lines of credit were past due. The ABA's composite delinquency ratio of nonrevolving loans -- such as auto and home-equity loans -- fell to 2.14% of all loans in the third quarter from 2.18% the quarter before. But the percentage was up from 2.06% notched in 2002. Home-equity lines continued to be the category with the lowest past-due rate, falling to 0.52% from 0.63% in the second quarter. Delinquencies on home-equity loans jumped to 2.52% in the third quarter from 2.48% in the second quarter, while the past-due rate for mobile home loans increased to 6% from 5.98%. Direct auto-loan delinquencies rose to 2.46% in the third quarter from 2.41% in the second quarter. But for indirect auto loans, delinquencies dropped to 1.80% in the third quarter from 1.86% in the second quarter.

To: russwinter who wrote (4469)	1/6/2004 12:14:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think there will be a foreign induced spike and some version of a USD defense, followed by a huge bust. Others like tippet and misheldo don't even think a spike (except perhaps in long dates)will be necessary to create the bust? That's possible I suppose. Maybe it's all academic, if the end result is the same? Leaving treasuries aside, I think there will be a foreign induced spike LOWER on interest rates. The Libor and the Bund are equivalant to US Eurodollar plays. It is a very good bet that Germand and GB rates have peaked or at least are near peak. Indeed, Libor futures have already moved 40 basis points. England has a long way to drop in comparison to US. Expect overseas interest rates to DROP rather than US rates to rise. Treasuries will likely stay in a range IMO. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (4469)	1/6/2004 12:25:54 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, RE: "Maybe it's all academic, if the end result is the same?" Yes, I think most on the thread believe in the same general end-result. I for one think we will see a "stagflation" type of environment at best. Inflation rising, rates rising, and at best, very little if any real "growth." I don't want to contemplate the "at worst" scenario. This last Christmas selling season (among many other factors) really flies in the face of the "recovery" scenario that is being offered, IMHO. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (4469)	1/6/2004 1:06:51 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

watch the homebuilders as the TNX drops through 4.00 -- if we don't get new marginal highs, It'll be time to pile on short, IMO. HOV back to 85-87 or so would be a gift at this pt ...Feb 80s or April 75s. [oops -- no Aprils yet]