Jonah Goldberg has an interesting column comparing Howard Dean to Bush 41:
Déjà Dean
The Democratic frontrunner looks a lot like our 41st POTUS.
Plenty of pundits have noted the similarities between Howard Dean and George W. Bush. They're both several-hundred-feet tall, inflict terrible damage on urban centers, and...oh, wait, that's Godzilla and Megalon.
The similarities between Bush and Dean are less exciting. We're told Bush is the scion of a blue-blood dynasty and so is Dean. And...um, well, that's about it. The similarities seem to end about there. That's because George Bush really is a Texan at heart. For good or for ill, the current president has shaken off the noblesse oblige gentility that defined his father and grandfather. That cowboy swagger may infuriate his detractors enough for them to choke a fern, but that swagger's authentic — which is probably why it bothers them so much.
Which brings us to the real similarities between Howard Dean and George Bush — the other George Bush. I think the Democratic frontrunner bears a striking resemblance to Bush 41. First, obviously, all of the points about a shared WASP lineage apply to the father as much as they do the son. But the elder Bush also shares a WASP upbringing which is much more similar to Dean's. Poppa grew up in Connecticut and Maine. Dean grew up on Park Avenue and in the Hamptons.
Of course it is also true that when his nation went to war George H. W. Bush signed up to be one of the youngest combat pilots in American history, while Howard Dean responded to the war of his youth by hitting the slopes of Aspen to endure a grueling therapeutic regimen for his lower back. But put that aside.
The striking similarity between Bush and Dean comes in their ironic aloofness to politics. It may sound odd to say that Dean is "aloof" from politics when his chief — if not only — appeal is his ability to enlarge the veins in his neck like grape-jelly-infused sausage casings whenever he talks about the president. But it's true.
REMEMBER POPPY?
One of the things which drove me nuts about George H. W. Bush was his tendency to read his stage direction aloud. He would tell audiences what his motivations were rather than show them. Remember "Message: I care"? My favorite example (from memory) was when he told the press he wanted to be positioned so that he didn't appear to support David Duke because of the racism. Now I am sure that Bush truly found Duke reprehensible, but Bush made it sound like he was reading his notes from the morning message meeting.
Back in the day, the criticisms of Bush 41 from movement conservatives and establishment liberals were very similar. He was a phony. He switched from being pro-choice to pro-life. He switched from being the author of the phrase "voodoo economics" to being a supply-sider to largely switching back again — and he violated his "read my lips" pledge. His overly cultivated Texas roots, his pork-rind eating, the pledge of allegiance...added up to a guy who saw campaigning as an ugly necessity.
Now there are many defenses to be made of Bush 41. The so-called "wedge issues" he brought up, including the prison-furlough system that freed Willie Horton — and even the pledge-of-allegiance stuff — were all legitimate in my mind. It is a testament to the German scientists who sought to create the Worst Candidate Ever (Schlechtester Kandidat überhaupt) and came up with Michael Dukakis that these tactics worked. In office, President Bush committed numerous acts of political courage, including his decision to raise taxes (you can be courageous and wrong, after all). His effort on the Gulf War was spectacular, a point even the Democratic establishment now concedes at every opportunity.
But, that's sort of the point. Bush governed as if he was born to it, he campaigned as if some fool had left it up to the people to hire and fire the president. No wonder the "Message: I care" president was trounced by that pain-feeling, permanently campaigning empath from Little Rock.
DR. WINK WINK
Now look at Howard Dean. The evidence of his phoniness is there for anyone with eyes to see. In the 1990s he bragged about being a centrist. He called himself a "very strong supporter of NAFTA" and had kind things to say about Newt Gingrich's efforts on Medicare. Indeed, Dean supporters made the case for his electability during the fall campaign by essentially conceding that he's only pretending to be fringe Left. Even Dean's authenticity as a Vermonter is little more than the L.L. Bean version of GHWB's Texas shtick (as those of you who read my NRODT cover story on Vermont might remember). The important cultural difference between the two is that Dean sought to reinvent himself as a Patagonia poster-boy while Poppy wanted to be a cowboy.
Unlike Bush 41, sausage-neck Dean actually enjoys campaigning, but it's not clear he takes it seriously, which is a kind of aloofness. Just ask yourself: Has there ever been a frontrunner candidate who has said more absurd or untrue things than Howard Dean? Okay, probably. But, it's hard to think of one who uttered his absurdities so cavalierly. Other major candidates who spouted similar nonsense usually had a sense of unshakable earnestness. Al Gore, for example, said some really crazy stuff, but you got the sense that even when he was lying he considered his words to be deadly serious.
Dean's different. Often, right before he deliberately says something unfair or bizarre, he says "I'm going to have a little fun at" so-and-so's "expense." So-and-so is often President Bush. But, as Will Saletan — who's been doing a great job covering the Democrats — has noted, it's also his Democratic opponents, the DLC, the DNC, and anyone else he'd like to smear.
Saying you're just having a little fun at someone's expense is a great way to slime your competition without paying a price. If the charge sticks — like when he calls John Ashcroft unpatriotic or says Bush isn't really trying to catch Osama — and there's no blowback, great. If there is blowback, he can simply dismiss criticism by saying he was "just having a little fun." Wink, wink.
But my point is not that this is Dean's strategy. No: This is Dean. He doesn't always actually say he's just having a little fun at other people's expense. But that's always what he's doing. We know this in part because Dean, like Bush 41, tells people his stage direction. Rather than appealing to lower-income southern white men who have Confederate flags on their pick-up trucks, he baldly says he wants to appeal to southern white men who have Confederate flags on their pick-up trucks — even though he concedes that they are racists. Rather than appealing to religious voters, he tells the world he wants to appeal to religious voters. He admits he lacks foreign-policy know-how, but it's okay because he'll be solving that problem with his VP pick.
It's the difference between saying "I love you, I think you're beautiful" and saying "Now I'm going to tell you how much I love you and how beautiful you are so I can get you into bed."
So when he says, "I'm just having a little fun..." he's being perfectly sincere. That really is his explanation and — he believes — his excuse. Howard Dean just doesn't think it's particularly important to be decent because he's really above this stuff. That's just one of the ironies of a campaign largely built around calling George Bush a liar.
Another irony is that he's been largely right so far. The astounding nastiness of his style of politics gets written off or dismissed or misinterpreted. When he floats the theory that Bush had been tipped off by the Saudis about September 11, but adds that he personally doesn't believe it, he gets to make a charge without taking responsibility for it. Imagine if I said: "The most interesting theory about Howard Dean is that he's a pederast. I don't believe it myself, mind you. But the theory's out there." Most of us would recognize this as an outrageous smear. But hey, he's just having some fun.
A key difference between the first President Bush and Howard Dean is that Howard Dean enjoys slumming while Bush was embarrassed by it. Dean's a bit like Teddy Roosevelt, another blueblood who got the politics bug. But instead of saying "Bully!" he says "Zounds!" (He really does.) Another important difference is that as much as he disdained campaigning, George H. W. Bush never put politics above national security — largely because Bush thought running for office was the price he had to pay to handle national security. Dean thinks trashing national security is the price he has to pay to play at politics. How else to explain an American presidential contender who plans for the day we aren't the most powerful nation, who talks about Osama bin Laden as if he were an accused embezzler, and who thinks the commander-in-chief has to play "Red Light, Green Light" with the United Nations?
NOTE: This analysis doesn't exclude other theories about Dean, it complements them. In particular, I think it's absolutely true that Dean's medical career plays a role in his arrogant obstreperousness. If doctors can be thin-skinned jerks when they're playing chess or bridge, they certainly can be thin-skinned jerks when playing politics. Dean sees nothing wrong with belittling anyone he chooses, but he's thunderstruck when anyone would question him or his judgment.
Personally, I think Dean's unique combination of insincerity, unseriousness, arrogance — and his ongoing bout of the verbal trots — will probably earn him a stunning loss in 2004. But if I'm wrong and he does win, my guess is that the "red" half of this country will despise him as much as the "blue" half hates the current President Bush. But, more important, he'll follow in the footsteps of the previous President Bush and end up a huge disappointment to those most responsible for getting him elected.
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