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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (9940)	1/8/2004 3:21:42 PM
From: keokalani'nui	Respond to of 52153

Merrill strategists weigh in, heavy focus on Asia Thursday January 8, 2:56 pm ET By Greg Cresci NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co.'s (NYSE:MER - News) top research strategists on Thursday offered forecasts for 2004 that focused heavily on Asia and downplayed investment opportunities in the United States. A group of eight Merrill research executives weighed in on a host of global economic issues at a press conference at the firm's headquarters in New York, ranging from the decline of the U.S. dollar to the state of emerging markets. "We think global equities will outperform U.S. equities," said Thomas Sowanick, Merrill's head of global strategy and economics. "Asia, not just China but Asia, will remain a source of growth ... The U.S. dollar, we think, will continue to trend lower throughout 2004 and perhaps into 2005." The U.S. dollar was pummeled throughout 2003 as investors dumped the greenback for other currencies, such as the euro. The euro rose nearly 20 percent in value against the U.S. dollar in 2003. David Bowers, Merrill's chief global investment strategist, noted that international stocks outperformed U.S. equities in 2003 due to the weak dollar. "We are overweight emerging markets in our global equity portfolio," Bowers said. "If there is a surprise for 2004, as international equities outperform, I think one of the places it's going to be is potentially in Japan." Merrill has $1.4 trillion in assets. Much of the panel's discussion centered on Asia, and in particular China, the world's most populous nation with 1.3 billion people. "The Asian story is getting a lot of air time right now, but we don't think the Asian story is over," said Timothy Bond, Merrill's chief Asia-Pacific economist. "We think it's just begun." Bond noted that India's economy right now is growing almost as fast as China's, which he said is currently growing at 11 percent to 12 percent per year. He also said other countries in the region such as Thailand and South Korea will pick up slack from any slowdown in China. Bond said China will likely account for 26 cents of every new dollar in world economic output for 2004. By comparison, he said, the United States will account for about 22 cents of that. As part of its blistering growth, China also is driving a resurgence in global inflation, Bond said. Growth for the Asian region should rise to 6.5 percent in 2004, up from 5.5 percent in 2003, he said. "Over the medium term, there is simply enormous potential in Asia. As Asia rises in 2004, we think you should be buying Asian stocks, buying Asian currencies and selling global bonds," Bond said. As for the United States, Merrill's chief U.S. strategist, Richard Bernstein, reiterated the view that profit growth at U.S. companies will slow significantly in 2004. He said the firm's forecast for the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) calls for it to be at 1010 one year from now. That would be about 10 percent below the S&P 500's close of 1126.33 on Wednesday.

To: Biomaven who wrote (9940)	1/8/2004 3:51:16 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

India: Big Pharma's New Promised Land? [BW 1.12.04] Drugmakers are heeding the siren call of its well-trained, cheap chemists - By Manjeet Kripalani in Bombay For years, software companies have known that they can slash costs by hiring eager, smart, and inexpensive programmers and engineers in India. Following in software's footsteps, corporations providing telephone support and back-office services soon saw the virtues of India's well-trained workforce as well. Now, Big Pharma is discovering the same benefits, as multinationals such as Pfizer (PFE ), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK ), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY ), and Novartis (NVS ) tap India's research and manufacturing prowess to cut costs and speed development of new pharmaceuticals. That's a big change for India. Foreign drugmakers have long shunned the country because of its lack of patent protection and blatant copying of drugs. But on Dec. 22, the Indian government introduced a bill in Parliament that would bring India's intellectual-property protections in line with international norms. "India's changing regulatory environment is coinciding with the pharma majors' increasing need to trim costs and boost productivity," says Gautam Kumra, a partner at McKinsey & Co. in New Delhi. The trend is still nascent. So far, India's drug-outsourcing market amounts to just $470 million. But it's expected to grow 30% a year, hitting $800 million by 2005, according to Bombay brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities. The growth will come from the efforts of companies such as Bombay's Nicholas Piramal India. On Dec. 9, Advanced Micro Optics, a Santa Ana (Calif.) maker of eye-care products, hired Nicholas to produce eye drops and tablets for contact lenses. The pact is proof of the company's "ability to meet stringent quality and time requirements for the export market," says Chairman Ajay Piramal. Now, Nicholas has a dozen similar deals in the pipeline. A host of players are entering the outsourcing game. Hyderabad-based Divi's Laboratories does custom chemical synthesis for Merck, Abbott Laboratories, and Glaxo and makes generic anti-inflammatory and anti-arthritic formulas for other firms. Bulk drugmaker Matrix Laboratories has seen its outsourcing business grow fivefold, to $10 million, in one year. In Bangalore, Biocon has 300 scientists doing contract research, up from just 25 in 2000, after sealing deals with Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. "STRONG COLLABORATIONS" It makes sense for pharma companies to look to India. Indian scientists are well-trained yet earn about a third of what their Western counterparts make. India has more pharmaceutical facilities approved by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration than any foreign country. And many of the 122,000 chemists and chemical engineers that India graduates every year have traditionally found jobs reverse-engineering patented drugs. Now, as India tightens its patent laws, its pharma companies will be looking for ways to keep both researchers and manufacturing plants busy. In their eagerness to cut costs, some multinationals are even willing to set aside old grievances. Although New Delhi-based Ranbaxy Laboratories in March successfully challenged Glaxo's patent on the antibiotic Ceftin, in October Glaxo hired Ranbaxy to research molecules that may become the building blocks for drugs. The deal "fits naturally with our other collaborations around the world to complement our own resources in drug discovery," says Mencef Slaoui, a Glaxo senior vice-president. Similarly, Novartis has hired Hyderabad-based Dr. Reddy's to research a diabetes molecule despite an ongoing lawsuit over a generic version of Novartis' antifungal cream Lamisil. AstraZeneca, meanwhile, has established a $10 million R&D facility in Bangalore that will focus on developing cures for tuber- culosis. While expansion in India represents just a fraction of these companies' global business, the share is growing fast as India becomes competitive in yet another knowledge industry. yahoo.businessweek.com