Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4486)	1/6/2004 1:46:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Thanks for posting that JW Mish

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4486)	1/6/2004 1:52:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Has Heinz gone off the deep end? From Heinz a war involving China will eventually be unavoidable. 2 major reasons: 1. resources - the world is running out of oil, and there will be war over what's left. 2. China's 'one child' policy has led to 150 million young men being born that can not find a spouse - they either will create social upheaval in China, or be fed to Ares. one guess what China's leaders will opt for. timing: not as uncertain as one would think. what to look for is a crisis in world trade - i.e., a vast reduction in world trade just as the one that happened shortly before WW2. trade is THE major factor inhibiting war - but as soon as the current boomlet ends, we may get a really nasty global recession cum currency crisis. protectionism is already on the rise, and that will intensify once the world goes back into synchronized economic decline. the protectionists ( a surprising number of whom can actually be found right here, on kitco ) would never admit it, but if, or rather when, they get their wish, it will hasten the arrival of war. as soon as the above pre-conditions ( i.e., global recssion, and a plunge in global trade ) exist, look for a 'trigger incident', some 'provocation' on the part of Taiwan for instance, or a civil war beginning in one of the oil-rich Central Asian nations bordering, or close to China. that will mark the beginning. note that war is a typical supercycle bear market phenomenon.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4486)	1/6/2004 3:07:31 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Jim, if you read what you posted you will notice that the writer actually writes the same I was posting on this tread for the last two weeks. Moreover, although the Euro has advanced against the dollar like a slingshot over the past year or so, we need to remember that fundamentals in Euro land aren't exactly wildly positive. In our eyes, the Euro has been a default currency choice, not a proactive one. In reality, large pools of global capital really have only three choices at the moment - the USD, the Euro and the Yen. The acid in our stomachs are reminding us that the paired short dollar and long Euro or gold trades are getting a bit crowded. Especially given that foreign central banks have accelerated Treasury purchases significantly over the last year. The downward momentum in the dollar and the upward momentum in the Euro could be reversed at any time ahead on a purely technical basis. And the potential for unwinding of many a short dollar position could easily cause a nice pop in the dollar over any short term period. As of last week, the very large commercial futures traders were significantly short foreign currencies such as the Euro and Yen. They are clearly betting on a dollar rally.