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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (4490)	1/8/2004 11:03:29 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

agreed and understood on EURO we have a worldwide shift underway in banking reserves, major capital assets away from the USDollar and toward the EURO I would not be surprised if Arabs are big players here and Russians also I dont believe for a SECOND that EU deficit borrowing in the credit markets remotely touches what the USA demands the US federal deficit is rising at over 7% of GDP per year (gotta reverse the annual Social Security robbery, sorry) I dont believe for a SECOND that current CB holdings of EuroBonds even remotely approaches levels of USTBonds so with diversification away from US$ continuing in large volume, with new issuance of USTBonds continuing in large volume, the trend will continue for some time sure, in two years, when EU exports are hurt badly, when Chinese imports do damage to their economy, when debts replace jobs and worsen the labor picture, the EURO will decline agree, but that EURO decline will begin after it hits $1.50 to $1.70 FOREX is RIGHTFULLY worried SHITLESS about an upcoming USDollar crisis the buck will lead the fall over the precipice by 2005, it will be clear that the only major economy on the planet suffering from price inflation and a faltering bond market will be the United States while the euro will be regarded temporarily as a refuge the EuroBond will benefit enormously as deflation is imported just like what happened in the USA in the 1990 decade the euro will eventually be seriously hurt from currency damage the damage only comes AFTER the currency rises for a long period but that entire euro decline will be in 2005-2006 if that seems outrageous and improbable, JUST WATCH / jim