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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (50377)	1/6/2004 10:48:52 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

may to july seems about right for the total sector, ahead of the traditional summer swoon, as many of these companies are now getting closer to fully pricing in the "good times" in the chip sector, whereas the sector is always cyclical, a fact people forgot when the stocks reached the outlandish valuations right after y2k, when suddenly there weren't going to be any more cycles in technology (yeah right) i think this sector, like the whole market, is now a case of researching individual names rather than just buying a sector ETF or the most popular, well known stocks, and holding on for nice gains like 2003....i don't think we are headed for a fall like what happened after y2k, as we are nowhere near those crazy valuations, but certainly the "easy money" has been made, and i think that the stocks which have just been rising with the tide without fundamental justification are going to have a hard time moving a lot higher (for those who like to short, ISSI is a wild boom and bust stock, i wish i had a history of their estimates to compare to the last time it was flying high like this...they report next monday, so their guidance will be interesting to see...they are just barely getting into the green now, and the estimates are all rosy now, but at the first slip....timberrr as the bears like to say <g>) how far ahead of the upturn did GS start making comments 180 degrees opposite of these comments, such as "we are taking our numbers down but we think the worst is over in terms of stock price," or something similar to that? if you have that kind of info, it would be interesting to see how much time passed between their first optimistic comments and the actual turn in the SOX, in october of 2002

To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (50377)	1/6/2004 11:04:45 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

I still think they have at least 50 to 100% more upside, if the earnings come in as expected and then some. It will be a bumpy, volatile, and damaging to those who are caught wrong type upside. Probably will have a 15% up day across the semi equip sector favorites before it is over. We should see AMAT for example have a quarter that would translate into a $1 EPS run rate. Then we should see the brokers rationalizing that $1 rate into $1.50 the next year estimates and assigning a 30PE on peak cycle earnings which will never end. That gets the price to $40plus and then the pile in crowd will be all in, and buying every dip as they discuss why AMAT is wrongly headed back to a 10 trailing PE even though the business outlook is so bright according to the analysts. Actually downgrades after the current round of earnings wouldn't surprise me. It will create the buying opportunity for the above setup. Then the whole cycle repeats itself. AMAT goes back to breakeven, everybody frets over the $15 price being overvalued. And when the doom gets thickest AMAT doubles for no apparent reason as the semi cycle begins anew. Average yearly earnings for AMAT over the last big cycle 1997 to 2002 was 55 cents. That inculdes negative years and a $2 year.