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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A. Edwards who wrote (8423)	1/7/2004 6:11:15 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Normalized free cash flow thoughts........ Sounds very similar to my approach using the 55 cents average yearly earnings over the 1997 to 2002 period cycle. And, sounds like the theory will be refuted by traders because AMAT will earn more than the "cycle average", and its not really a cyclical company, and this time is different, and somebody somewhere will buy it at 30X peak earnings.

To: A. Edwards who wrote (8423)	1/7/2004 8:30:54 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "ANYBODY HAS ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS?" 1. "...we believe the next peak will occur in 2005..." I have seen growth projections for semis which extend to 2008. I think 2005 is an unlikely peak for semi-equips. 2. "Finally, higher-than-normalized cash flow is, by definition, not sustainable in a pure cyclical business." I don't believe that AMAT is in a "pure cyclical business." It is in a cyclical growth business. 3. "The market is smarter than one thinks and ultimately "gets it right." If "gets it right" means able to look in the rear view mirror and adjust to what has already happened, then yes.