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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (122906)	1/7/2004 11:01:39 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

re: risk assessment: Yes, it is impossible to accurately assess risk, in a situation where a very bad outcome has a very low probability of happening. People's assessment of risk, in these situations, tends to be an ink-blot test. Their assessment says a lot about them, and little about the actual risk. The "prudent man rule" leads to herd behavior, because "prudent" is entirely context-dependant. "Prudent" in one time and place, is "foolish" in another, and "heresy" elsewhere. You can get burned at the stake, by defining "prudent" differently than your peers. I asked my wife what profession is least likely to say foolish things. She says, "Maybe accountants. Or physicists. Not doctors. Physicians say random and stupid things every day". And she should know, as she is a doctor married to a doctor, who trains doctors.