Bush is in strong position
Political analysis by Susan Page, USA TODAY
usatoday.com
DES MOINES — To the disappointment of many Democrats, this year's presidential election no longer looks like a replay of 1992.
President Bush, who won the White House in one of the closest and most disputed contests in U.S. history, begins the election year in a strong position to win a second term that his father never had.
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll Friday through Monday shows that Bush's courting of conservative Republicans and the brightening picture for economic growth and the stock market are delivering two advantages that his father didn't have. Now, Bush has the approval of a 54% majority for his handling of the economy — a signature reading of a president's political health — and a committed core of supporters.
At the moment, among likely voters he defeats Democratic front-runner Howard Dean 59% to 37%. Against an unnamed Democrat, he wins 55% to 38%.
Of course, the election is 10 months away. There's time for events that could shake the political landscape, among them a faltering economy, a worsening situation for U.S. forces in Iraq or a terrorist strike in the USA.
And for a year, Dean has done better than rivals or pundits predicted. "They've underestimated us the whole way," Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi says of the Democratic establishment. "I hope Rove & Co. underestimate us."
That was a reference to top Bush strategist Karl Rove. Trippi then referred to the Democrats' disastrous 1972 nominee. With the ability to raise money and the instincts to fight back, Trippi says, "We're no George McGovern, no way."
Still, by key measures of the economy and the polls, Bush is in a stronger position at this point than President Clinton in 1996, who won a second term, and the elder Bush in 1992 and President Carter in 1980, who lost. Bush's situation is competitive with that of President Reagan in 1984, who won 49 states. Since World War II and the advent of modern polling, no president with high approval ratings on the economy and an optimistic public at the beginning of the election year has lost his bid for re-election.
"From a historical perspective, we're in a pretty good position ... which gives us a good feeling about where things are heading in this election," says Matthew Dowd, a Bush strategist. "But we're 300 days away from Election Day, and a lot can change."
He said the nation's close political divide means the two candidates are almost sure to finish within 4 or 5 percentage points of each other. A Reagan-style landslide would be "impossible" today, Dowd says.
For the past year, Democratic activists have argued that Bush was following in his father's footsteps: Waging a war against Iraq but presiding over a weak economy at home that cost him the White House to a Democratic challenger. That comparison no longer seems so apt. On some election fundamentals, Bush is strong:
•His approval ratings are healthy and improving. Six in ten Americans say they approve of the job Bush is doing. That's higher than the approval ratings Clinton, Carter, Reagan or the elder Bush had at this point. Bush's approval rating on handling Iraq has risen 11 points in a month, to 61%.
His rating on the economy is up 6 points. His 54% approval rating on the economy contrasts with a 24% rating for his father one year before the 1992 election.
•His supporters are committed. By 55%-38%, likely voters say they're inclined to support Bush over the Democratic nominee, Bush's strongest showing since the spring of 2002. Most of his supporters say they won't change their minds; 45% say they're sure to vote for him. Democratic support is softer; 27% say they will support the party's nominee.
The elder Bush was undercut by his lack of solid support among his party's conservative base. In January 1992, just 27% of those surveyed said they were sure to vote for him.
•The public is optimistic about the future. By 55%-43%, those surveyed said they were satisfied with the direction the country was going, one of the most reliable indicators of how a president will fare in an election. That's a higher level of public satisfaction than Clinton, Carter, Reagan or the first President Bush could claim at this point in their terms.
•Most of the Democratic contenders aren't viewed favorably, at least not yet. Bush is viewed favorably by nearly 2-to-1, 65% to 35%. But Dean has a net negative rating, with 28% viewing him favorably, 39% unfavorably. Of the Democrats, only retired Army general Wesley Clark has a net favorable rating of more than one point. His rating was 37% favorable, 26% unfavorable.
However, the Democratic contenders aren't as well-known as Bush. Most Americans haven't been paying close attention to the Democratic field or the November election.
The poll shows the president has vulnerabilities. More Americans disapprove than approve of the way he's handled health care. Most say the prescription-drug plan for seniors that he signed last month didn't go far enough. They don't think he spends enough time on domestic issues. And 44% say a Democrat could win.
But presidential elections are usually about whether the incumbent deserves to be rehired. "Voters fired (the elder) George Bush over the economy," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report. "They fired Jimmy Carter over leadership and foreign policy. The first question now is, are voters ready to fire George Bush? And the answer so far is that they're not."
Contributing: Jill Lawrence |
