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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (23448)	1/8/2004 12:44:07 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793620

More good Mideast commentary from Barry Rubin: Analysis: Radical Arab regimes doing the minimum By BARRY RUBIN Whatever problems it faces within Iraq, the US decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein is looking pretty good on the regional level. Made fearful by the overwhelming demonstration of US power, radical regimes feel the need for caution. While there has been no apparent effect on Palestinian behavior – and thus not on the Israel-Palestinian conflict – the result has been real or cosmetic changes in the policies of Iran, Libya, and Syria. The problem, of course, is to differentiate between serious shifts and public relations gestures. Yet even phony moderation can have a good effect by reducing the aggressiveness of extremist regimes. Each of the three remaining radical governments has reacted to the situation in its own way. Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi, the weakest and most eccentric, has made the biggest change. To escape international sanctions for involvement in bombing an American airliner over Lockerbie, Scotland, he had already sent two intelligence officials for trial at a court in Holland. Next, he offered financial compensation for those killed. Now he confessed his efforts to get nuclear weapons, including details of Pakistan's help. This is not the first time Gaddafi has responded to force by turning toward apparent moderation. He also did so for several years in the late 1980s after the US bombing of his country and home following a Libyan-sponsored terrorist attack that killed American soldiers in Germany. One can expect that his new orientation will also be temporary, though nonetheless welcome. Iran's response has been to make a deal promising to abandon its drive for nuclear weapons and allow better inspections and restrictions on the atomic power plants it is building. This has been hailed as a major step forward by Teheran, even though there has been no change in the country's sponsorship of terrorism and open calls for Israel's destruction. Aside from having US forces as its neighbors in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Iranian regime also faces considerable domestic opposition, which is becoming decidedly pro-American. There has been much exaggerated talk within the country about the possibility of a US invasion. Teheran seems to feel, with a fair measure of accuracy, that the world can be fooled very easily by a few minor gestures. Syria is the most interesting. It is now surrounded by those its sponsorship of terrorism has antagonized – Israel, Turkey, and US forces in Iraq. Again, though, much of the response is cosmetic. The country's dictator, Bashar Assad, continues to sponsor terrorist groups, even refusing to implement his promises to the US to close their offices in Damascus. He is also concealing Iraqi money and military equipment and giving safe haven to former high-ranking officials in the Saddam regime. Instead, he has embarked on a charm offensive. He has gone to Turkey to ease relations with that neighbor, against whom he long sponsored Kurdish terrorism. Assad has also spoken of negotiating with Israel about peace. This is the precise same strategy his father used when intimidated by the US victory over Saddam in 1991. The problem was that when Israel offered him his main demand, the return of the Golan Heights in exchange for full peace, papa Assad turned it down. So while radical regimes try to assuage a determined US superpower, they will do the minimum that America and the world permits in changing their ways. jpost.com