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To: greenspirit who wrote (23451)1/8/2004 4:35:21 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793750
 
This is gonna gag the Democratic Nominee. And Rove will pound it.

January 8, 2004
POLITICAL MEMO
A Tax Debate Full of Hazards for Democrats
By ROBIN TONER

WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 — Twelve days before the Iowa caucuses, the battle for the Democratic nomination has become an increasingly furious debate over how to reverse President Bush's tax cuts, yet avoid the politically deadly charge that the Democrats are the party of tax increases.

Nowhere is this more striking than in the sudden scrambling of Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor, who has advocated repealing all of Mr. Bush's tax cuts, including those for the middle class. Now, under heavy fire from his rivals, Dr. Dean is preparing a new tax plan that is widely expected to offer tax relief for the middle class.

Dr. Dean insisted on Wednesday that he had long intended to propose "additional tax reforms that will make the tax code fairer for working families and that will ensure that corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share." But the political pressures to do so are intense — both from his opponents for the nomination and from the increasing imperative to reposition himself to the center for what he hopes will be a general election campaign.

Most immediately, Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Senators John Kerry, John Edwards and Joseph I. Lieberman, seeking to present themselves as the more centrist, electable alternatives to Dr. Dean, are hitting the issue hard in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"I don't want to go back to being the old Democratic Party that doesn't get it," Mr. Kerry said in an interview on Wednesday. "I've been fighting all year to protect middle-class taxpayers." Mr. Kerry has advocated eliminating the tax cuts that benefit the wealthiest Americans, but preserving those for the middle class. His campaign is planning a new television spot in Iowa faulting others for not doing the same.

Adding to the pressure within the Democratic Party are the first maneuverings of the general election campaign. The Bush camp and its allies clearly look forward to campaigning against their eventual opponent as a throwback to the old tax-and-spend days of the party. Conservatives are already running advertisements and directing barbs along those lines at Dr. Dean. A new television advertisement in Iowa produced by the Club for Growth, a conservative group, shows a man and his wife denouncing Dr. Dean's "tax-hiking, government-expanding, latte-drinking" policies.

Grover Norquist, an influential conservative strategist, said of Dr. Dean: "In order to be the baddest Democrat in the primary, he had to stake out the most radical pro-tax position. I don't intend to let him walk away from that in the general."

At the same time, the Bush administration is warning that rolling back the tax cuts would be a "huge mistake" that would jeopardize the economic recovery, as Treasury Secretary John W. Snow put it Wednesday.

Dr. Dean's move toward a middle-class tax relief at the urging of his advisers was first reported on Wednesday in The Boston Globe. In interviews on Wednesday, aides insisted that no decision had been made on the type of tax relief.

Gina Glantz, a senior Dean adviser, said an announcement would come after President Bush unveiled his budget, next month.

The debate over taxes is painful terrain for the Democratic Party, which is still haunted by the memory of the 1980's, when Republicans ran successfully against the Democrats as "taxers and spenders." Bill Clinton built his primary campaign in 1992 around the idea of the "forgotten middle class," including a middle-class tax cut and a new emphasis on fiscal responsibility. He argued that Democrats would not be returned to power until they regained the trust and loyalty of those voters.

But once Mr. Clinton was elected, he abandoned the middle-class tax cut and focused on cutting the deficit. The tax increases in his 1993 budget agreement took a heavy toll on Congressional Democrats, who lost their majorities in 1994. Still, by his second term, which saw the balanced budget act of 1997, some middle-class tax relief and a roaring economy, Mr. Clinton was widely credited with changing the Democratic Party's image as economic stewards.

"This is one of the big choices the party had to make to get out of the wilderness in 1992, and we have to make again to find our way back in 2004," said Bruce Reed, a former Clinton domestic policy adviser who is now the head of the Democratic Leadership Council, a centrist group that has been critical of Dr. Dean. "Republicans have spent 30 years trying to convince America that all we want to do is raise people's taxes, and we'd be crazy to hand them that chance again."

General Clark tried this week to tie himself to part of that Clinton legacy when he unveiled a broad tax overhaul, which campaign officials said would essentially eliminate federal income taxes for a family of four with income of less than $50,000. His plan would cut taxes for other families with incomes up to $100,000 and raise taxes on Americans who make $1 million or more a year.

Representative Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois Democrat and former Clinton aide who supports General Clark, argued that only by moving to such broad new ideas for tax "reform" can the Democrats "get out of the straitjacket that Bush put you in."

In fact, the Bush tax cuts have been tricky for Democrats. Many in the party believe the cuts were fiscally unsound, responsible for big new deficits, skewed toward the rich and a painful check on federal spending for years to come. Yet many Democrats also know that calling for the rollback of tax cuts will be treated as a tax increase by their opponents.

Moreover, the Bush tax cuts do provide some relief to middle-income Americans — in some cases only a few hundred dollars, but in other cases as much as $2,000 or more.

Of the major candidates, only Dr. Dean and Representative Richard A. Gephardt have advocated rolling back the entire tax cut. Mr. Gephardt, at the head of the pack with Dr. Dean in Iowa, argued that he would provide Americans with a more valuable form of relief — guaranteed health insurance.

Dr. Dean has argued that whatever tax cut the average middle-class family received from the Bush administration is far outweighed by the additional costs of higher state and local taxes, reduced government services, higher health costs and the general drag of growing deficits. Much of the money from rolling back the tax cut would go to a new health care plan, he says, and the rest to balancing the budget.

Still his advisers have advocated providing some relief — including the possibility of an income tax cut — to the middle class to offset what they lose from the Bush rollback.

Dr. Dean's rival campaigns were already scoffing at what Bill Buck, of the Clark campaign, called "the secret plan to provide tax relief."

Mr. Buck added, "They say they won't release it until this pesky nomination fight is out of the way."

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company



To: greenspirit who wrote (23451)1/8/2004 7:56:56 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793750
 
Another good analysis from "Reason."

Gott Mit Uns

Shibboleths in presidential politics

Julian Sanchez

It's a commonplace that you can't win the presidency of the United States without God. Whether or not he really uses your product, the celebrity endorsement is a must have.

It was not always so. In his classic examination of the fledgling United States, Democracy in America, Alexis de Tocqueville argued that religion both flourished and acted to cement democracy in the early republic precisely because religion remained at a certain distance from partisan politics. Tocqueville observed:

In several states 5 the law excludes [clergy] from political life; public opinion excludes them in all. And when I came to inquire into the prevailing spirit of the clergy, I found that most of its members seemed to retire of their own accord from the exercise of power, and that they made it the pride of their profession to abstain from politics.

In the '60s, John F. Kennedy had to reassure voters that he would strive to be "a president whose views on religion are his own private affairs." Today, as a 2002 article published in The Humanist argues, someone like Thomas Jefferson would probably prove unelectable.

This fact has not escaped today's political hopefuls. The ink was barely dry on Franklin Foer's New Republic cover story alleging that Howard Dean was too secular for the American electorate when Dean announced his intention to break out the Jesus-speak when stumping in the South (while, presumably, refraining in the North).

While many have been quick to criticize this shift in rhetoric as cynical pandering, Dean's surely right to be concerned about his image as a secular candidate. Poll after poll confirms the conventional wisdom: Voters want a certain amount of God talk from their presidents. Under an administration that all but claims divine inspiration for every mohair subsidy and steel tariff, Americans are twice as likely to say that politicians invoke religion "too little" as they are to regard the level of religious rhetoric as excessive, according to a recent survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

But what, precisely, are voters looking for when they express a preference for religious politicians? Policy wonks might be inclined to think that citizens of faith want candidates to talk about religion for the same reason that NRA members want them to talk about guns: in order to confirm that they'll pursue certain policy goals once in office.

That would be an unsettling state of affairs for those who believe that state neutrality between different conceptions of the good—including religious conceptions—is a cornerstone of liberal societies. But while some voters clearly do want to see scripture reflected in law, that doesn't seem to be the whole story.

The Pew survey solicited responses to a series of specific invocations of religion by political figures. Overwhelming majorities had no problem with general references, such as Bush's line about freedom being "God's gift to mankind." But less than half were comfortable with a more specific statement that might appear to have policy implications: "I have never believed the Constitution required our schools to be religion-free zones." (Though discomfort dropped significantly when it was revealed that the speaker was Bill Clinton.)

Perhaps, then, America's affinity for religious politicians has less to do with policy than with signaling affective bonds. Sociologist Rodney Stark has long argued that religion originates and flourishes primarily because of the social function it serves. According to Stark, "success is really about relationships and not about faith. What happens is that people form relationships and only then come to embrace a religion. It doesn't happen the other way around." Stark's research suggests that while new converts to a particular faith typically aver that their reasons for joining the group have to do with theological doctrine, they seldom even know precisely what those doctrines are until well after they've become members of the relevant religious community.

Amy Sullivan, writing in the The Washington Monthly, credits George W. Bush's facility with this sort of signaling. In his 2003 State of the Union speech, Bush told the country that "there's power, wonder-working power, in the goodness and idealism and faith of the American people." As Sullivan notes, Bush's language there echoes an old gospel song, which says "There is power, power, wonder-working power in the blood of the Lamb." There's no obvious policy significance to the reference; it's what Will Saletan would call an associational framing technique. A piece of rhetoric which passes unnoticed by most listeners serves as a coded message to Evangelicals, a shibboleth. He's signaling: "I'm one of you; I speak your language."

But the Pew survey's findings suggest that this, too, can only be a partial explanation. Even among self-identified secularists, 58 percent believe that Bush's religious views influence his politics "too little" or the "right amount." At a time when Islam has, to put it mildly, a public relations problem in the United States, only 38 percent of respondents—the vast majority of whom were almost certainly Christians of one flavor or another—said they would be reluctant to vote for an otherwise well-qualified Muslim candidate. More than half would have similar reservations about electing an Atheist. In short, it seems that voters care less about whether a candidate shares their religion than about whether he adheres to some religion or other.

Perhaps we see religion as an answer to one of the oldest political problems. If we prefer the rule of law to the rule of men, we must ask, with the Roman satirist Juvenal, quis custodiet ipsos custodies? Who watches the watchmen? In other words, when we cede power to political authorities to protect us, who will ensure that they don't use that power to serve their own interests at our expense? Democracy itself provides one check, but a highly imperfect one.

The answer religion provides is that perhaps nobody needs to be actually watching the watchmen, so long as they believe that they are always being watched—and being held accountable—by a power more informed and perceptive than even the electorate. To borrow Nietzsche's provocative term, we may want to ensure that our political masters are bound by a slave morality—which is to say, an ethos characterized by humility and empathy with the powerless, one in which the "will to power" is suppressed. Social theorist Jane Jacobs suggested in her book Systems of Survival that everyday commercial life and the sphere of government are (ideally) governed by distinct "moral syndromes." We don't much object when private citizens act through the market to pursue their own self-interest; such behavior tends to benefit us all in the long run. But we want those who wield political power to play by different rules. So we may want political leaders to express deference to religious principles, even if we don't adhere to the same principles in our private lives.

If that's the case, Dean is off to a bad start. As Foer recounts, Dean's defection from the Episcopal Church to Congregationalism was inspired by a bike-path-to-Damascus experience: The local Episcopal diocese had fought Dean's crusade to build a scenic bike trail, which would've required the Church to cede a strip of property. Politics, in other words, subordinates religion. His recent efforts to change his image may be similarly misguided. Dean's citation of the Book of Job as his favorite biblical passage, for instance, may backfire. First because, as William Safire noted, Dean's comments indicated that he wasn't altogether clear on what, precisely, his favorite passage says or where in the Bible it's found. But, more importantly, by picking Job—indeed, identifying himself with Job—Dean fails to make his faith a signal of humility and subordination to God. Instead, he selects as his exemplar the biblical figure most associated with religious doubt, with a need to question Jehovah, to "come even to his seat…order my cause before him and fill my mouth with arguments."

Liberals—in the broad sense of that term—may get uneasy with their fellow citizens' desire to take their politics with a dose of religion. Yet that desire may prove to be healthy from a liberal perspective. It's a sign that we're not yet ready to accept rulers for whom politics itself is the only thing deserving of worship.

Julian Sanchez is Reason's Assistant Editor. He lives in Washington, D.C.