Harkin plays Hamlet
To Endorse or Not to Endorse? An Iowa Power Broker Is Torn
By CARL HULSE
CUMMING, Iowa, Jan. 6 — The most sought-after Democratic caucus-goer in Iowa is agonizing in this hamlet of 150, torn over whether to make what could be the most important endorsement in the state's still shifting presidential contest.
"As we sit here right now, I honestly don't know what I'm going to do," said Senator Tom Harkin, whose support, in Iowa at least, has the potential to vastly overshadow endorsements by Al Gore, Bill Bradley or just about anyone else. "I am being pulled in a couple of different ways. I may not endorse anyone. I may just let it all play out."
But that outcome could be personally unsatisfying for Mr. Harkin, who has played caucus power broker in the past and won the voting in his own unsuccessful presidential bid in 1992. After all, what is the point of having a nationally significant political event in his home state if he cannot flex his substantial muscle?
"Tom, being Tom, loves to campaign and he wants to do whatever he can to see a Democrat in the White House," said Lorraine Voles, a former adviser who remains close to the senator. "I think he starts looking at the options out there."
It is a tricky business for Mr. Harkin, who has political allies sprinkled throughout the campaigns of the top contenders, longtime relationships with several of the candidates and a burning desire to make certain he is central to the political life of his state. His deliberations are front-page news in Des Moines, the campaigns have been calling, and the days are slipping by toward the Jan. 19 caucuses.
As he contemplates what to do, he can be found in the small, refurbished house he was born in here on the rural outskirts of Des Moines. From his living room, he can look out at the snow-covered cornfields, spin tales about local bootleg rye whiskey, show off his favorite shotguns and take aim at his next move.
The thinking is that if Mr. Harkin does make a public choice, it is likely to be Howard Dean, whose current take-no-prisoners brand of Democratic politics resembles Mr. Harkin's own populist style. Mr. Harkin acknowledges being "intrigued" by the former Vermont governor.
"It has been impressive what he has done," said Mr. Harkin, who invoked a late friend and fellow liberal in the Senate."Paul Wellstone and I always knew that if we continue to compete with the Republicans for the same shrinking pool of voters, we will lose. We have to expand that pool and Dean is doing that."
Dr. Dean, like any of the caucus competitors, would be thrilled with a Harkin stamp of approval, said his campaign manager, Joe Trippi. "It's pretty clear in Iowa that every candidate would love to have Senator Harkin's endorsement," Mr. Trippi said.
An endorsement of Dr. Dean would be a blow to the campaign of Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who is relying on support from the same labor unions that are close to Mr. Harkin. Advisers to Mr. Gephardt concede it would not be good news but say that such a move at this late stage would probably limit the influence of Mr. Harkin's extensive organizational network.
For the other campaigns, their best hope may be that Mr. Harkin simply stays out of it. Sometimes, it is easy to forget that Mr. Harkin himself is not in the race, because most of the candidates slip a flattering reference to the lawmaker or his policies into their remarks at rallies, hoping to strike a bond with Iowans while currying favor with Mr. Harkin.
There is no doubt that his endorsement would be a significant development and could swing some voters.
"Harkin is the key state Democrat here," said Dennis Goldford, a professor at Drake University. "He does carry some weight."
His backing of Mr. Gore was credited with helping the vice president defeat Mr. Bradley in the 2000 caucuses. And Mr. Harkin sought early to carve out a role in the 2004 caucuses by being host at a series of 10 "Hear it from the Heartland" candidate forums and a steak fry that were treated as don't-miss events by the contenders last year. But no endorsement ensued, even though Mr. Harkin said his own neighbors were asking him for guidance.
Though he said he came close to announcing a choice in the last few days, Mr. Harkin is being urged by some of his chief advisers to stay neutral in the contest, as is another prominent Democrat, Gov. Tom Vilsack. The governor has indicated he would not announce a preference to maintain an aura of openness around the caucuses and to help Iowa keep its first-in-the-nation status.
"There is something to be said for that," said Mr. Harkin, who is clearly finding it difficult to be on the sidelines. "But there is something to be said for the fact that we are political leaders, aren't we? There are a lot of undecided Democrats who are out there calling me and wondering what to do."
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
