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Strategies & Market Trends : Raptor's Den II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mish5000 who wrote (1599)	1/8/2004 6:25:13 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

Remember the 80/20 rule - most people can't believe this is happening and are waiting for a pullback - most people are always wrong. 80% of this stunning new move shall be completed in 20% of the regular trading time. hmmmmmmmm. I'm not taking sides in any debate about where we go from here, but it strikes me that one possible outcome that would comply with this 80/20 rule would be a rather stagnant market going forward. In round numbers it took 9 months for the NDX to move from 950 to 1450. If that 500 points were 80% of the total move and the 9 months were 20% of the time, we might conclude that it will now take 36 months from November 2003 to break above 1450 plus 125 or 1575. I'm not saying this will happen, or it won't, but I don't see how the 80/20 rule is assuring a stunning new move up from here.

To: mish5000 who wrote (1599)	1/8/2004 6:49:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3432

Well I took 3/4 of them off on a slight retrenchmant earlier today. The position now is extremely small. Couple hundred at risk. It was not a big position to begin with. I played for a tendency that I noticed and when it refused to come in I took it off. I prefer playing miners anyway. Totally out and waiting for the next retracement to go long. M