We're in it trying to figure out how to get out.
Yes, that's right, and so far, it seems to be working, if not for everybody, at least for some... as for the economy, according to many, we would not be in a recovery, indeed they cite the "jobless" recovery.... (Yet with unemployment at 5.7 (or whatever the latest figure was, it does not seem all that bad...
I meant there are entire nations (like in Europe -gg) where unemployment continues to loom in the 10% range...
With very few exceptions, I do not see many people starve in the US... I mean the poor in this country would be equivalent to lower middle class in any of the banana republics of the third world, if not far better...
It would be hard to make a case that we stood still in the '90s. The internet went from exotic to everyday. Long distance electronic communications became cheap and commonplace. But both of those are now part of our problem. They mean many jobs that used to be done locally can now be done in India or China.
Indeed... as I said, a victim of our own success... be careful what you wish, because it may just come true.
What I meant by saying "stand still and do nothing, I did not mean the 90's I mean today...
What would you like the Fed to do... raise rates and kill whatever "recovery" exists, (even if it is a weak one)?
What exactly the disaster predictors would envision happening ? This "come to Jesus" event that Jorj mentions means ?
A depression style soup lines ? An apocalyptic financial break with people rioting because banks are insolvent ?
Should any of the financial, media, psychological tools that past history has given us, never be used to avert these events ?
In stead...
Why not navigate through these difficult times in an attempt to define the possible solutions to get us out of this hole ?
People talk about the fact that the US is carrying debt like a banana republic ? But the difference is... (Let’s take Argentina for example)...
Argentina wanted a first world currency, (triggered by the inflation fears of the 70's ) and so, they thought of a " brilliant" idea by pegging the peso to the US Dollar... but it never had the economic infrastructure to back it up... as soon as Argentinean labor and goods became prohibitively expensive, hordes of jobs fled to Brazil (i.e. the automobile industry)... a real depression style unemployment swept the country for 4 years or so ( i do not remember how long it was, but it was desperately long), until finally they had to give up...
Yes, the politicians designed the system that forced the disaster because it required 2/3 majority to devalue the currency.... by the time the needed 2/3 majority was accomplished the country was a basket case (yet again!)
The US on the other hand, as much in trouble as it is right now, it is still the leader in many fields and in a given recovery, it will have the capacity to reduce considerably, (if not totally wipe out) its obligations that for now seem they will never be met.
The US has, at least in my eyes, the infrastructure and willpower to overcome the current situation.
However, it will not come by "osmosis" or just because we say so.
A NEW strategy must be implemented. One that takes advantage of the NEW economic world we live in.
It seems, for now at least that a lower dollar is part of the solution.
Up until now, the economic "engine" of the world was the US economy, with its 260-280 million people...
Now... the new consumer market that will carry the world (or at least assist in doing so) is not a single one, but several ones.
China, 1.3 billion, India, 1 billion, or if you prefer, the entire SE Asia... (Around 3 billion); then there is Latin America with around 400 million, and then Europe/EEC...
Although Africa could be another market until they stop trading bullets within the different tribes/countries/tyrants, we will have to leave them out of the party for now...
The Middle East could be another interesting market, but the African situation seems to apply here as well... so forget them self bombing artists.
My point is that if a considerable segment of the American economy increases its participation in a true global economy (exporting more), we could then solve the deficits we seem so concern with, and avert the financial Armageddon some seem so convince we will have at our door step.
I believe Greenspan is providing a good tool to become competitive again, by lowering interest rates, and in the process lowering the value of the US dollar, making the combination of high quality/low cost of American products a killer combo.
In addition, many would be tourists to foreign lands would become tourists internally, so there is an added benefit.
The other areas where America needs to seriously put itself to work are:
* Education (primarily in the lower levels)
* Labor costs (yes, the Unions will not like this)
* Curbing immigration related costs (the Mexican illegal population is a real drain of resources... by creating a "guest worker program" you achieve: 1. a register of most "would be" illegal workers, 2. taxation of their wages, including health benefits. 3. regulation of who becomes a new US citizen (or not) 4. remember that a good portion of these workers do NOT want to live in the US, they just want a job.... and a job that many Americans are NOT willing to perform anyway.
* A trade zone(s) incentives designed to EXPORT American products
And whatever other things that may make sense...
A lot of these things need to be created perhaps by local efforts, all the Feds need to do is giving the cue (or the tools, i.e. tax incentives, low interest rates, low cost real estate to implement manufacturing facilities that can tackle the above mentioned issues... i.e. imagine a "maquiladora program", but in the US side, with the purpose of EXPORTING American goods, employing Mexican (otherwise) illegal aliens (but paying American taxes, to carry their own weight in the US society).
Once again, the point is, you MUST be creative and do away with the old thinking; the entire world is your competition now, and it is a capable competition because: 1. there is a lot of them and 2. YOU, the USA were the main coach of them.
NO... the old 1940-1960 life style of the American Dream will not be feasible... so why continue to beat your head against the wall attempting the impossible ?
It is a new world, where CHEAP labor, high tech, new efficiencies, and a real world market are the elements of the equation. How do we place them is up to us... We can either win or lose. However the infrastructure and skill to achieve success is there... but the system needs to be "tweaked" quite a bit.... in many respects, we are in far better position than other countries...
I 'm not sure a simple change of attitude is going to get us out of this. It may be part of it, but it won't solve US economic problems. Educated brainpower is what worked for the last half century. Maybe it still can, but we've got MAJOR work to do straightening out our educational establishment if we are to do it with home grown brainpower. Or we've got to find a way of continuing to import other nations well educated brains. I think we're going to have a problem getting them to come as things are.
See? You are already agreeing with me...
True "positive attitude" alone will not do the trick...
BUT IT BEATS THE HELL OF SOBBING ALL DAY LONG BEING DEPRESSED WAITING FOR THE LIGHT TO STRIKE YOU IN THE ARSE.
Maybe it s high time to take away the license given to Psychiatrists to give "pills" --drugs-- to the entire nation and stop telling them "they are depressed" eh ?
Or for Lawyers --ahem-- to quit putting an undue burden on society with irrational and idiotic lawsuits... eh ?
Would that be considered.... ahem... "patriotic"
--Or mere common sense-- ?
Think of the effects on insurance premiums and medical costs?
Maybe not though. We still have the most open economic system on the planet. You don't have to be related to business mogul X or political power Y to make it here. That may be the magnet.
It is true.... however...
At what point the risk of liability overcomes that of the above mentioned benefits?
So I have to become one of "mogul x, or tyrant y" to make it in "banana republic z"... but man, I will not have to pay gazillions in insurance premiums, or put up idiotic labels, or implement more than obvious rules, so law firm "ab&c" does not sue me for my life savings, or the government does not probe in the arse to be able to make it...
Who is it better to bribe, corrupt government officials, or tyrannical union leaders ?
How much is American medical technology worth in terms of premiums.... ? Or am I better off moving to a country where medical costs are a fraction of that in the US... and the technology is not far behind --in most instances--
xyz: Is it a choice of which is/are the worst of two (or several ) evils ?
L_L: Ask again in ten years. :-)
On the contrary, I have to ask now, to live in a better environment ten years from now.
The time of reckoning is now, each one of us MUST make his/her own decision as to how to proceed and each one of us needs to know if the government we are under will or will not help and create the necesary environment to achieve the REAL change you yourself have alluded; dreaming, or bitching about it will not be enough. Real action is needed... not ten years from now, but TODAY.
btw... I understand that Jorgito Bush made a speech touching on immigration....
He must have GREAT advisors .... -ggggg (see next post) |
