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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12959)	1/8/2004 8:16:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Here's the closing comments by Briefing.com tonight. Another good day today - a pretty good synopsis of what is driving the market. <<Close Dow +63.41 at 10592.44, Nasdaq +22.57 at 2100.25, S&P +5.59 at 1131.91: [BRIEFING.COM] The market spent the entire session in positive territory, ending near its best levels of the day and at new 52-week closing highs... The favorable bias was supported by a batch of favorable corporate news, as same store sales for December checked in generally better than expected, while multiple companies including the likes of Nokia (NOK 20.46 +2.49) and Procter & Gamble (PG 99.13 +1.03), provided upward guidance... On the economic front, the Initial Claims report checked in at 353K (consensus 345K), bringing the 4-week average down to 350K from 356K and continuing to point to a stabilizing employment market... With Alcoa's (AA 38.68 +0.48) earnings slated for later today, the market has turned its eyes to the upcoming January reporting season... Wall Street expectations are for Q4 operating earnings growth of 22%, while Briefing.com looks for an even stronger number... Please see The Big Picture brief for more perspective... The bulk of the sectors ended the session in positive territory, with leaders of note to the upside including the hardware, networking, semiconductor, telecom, communications equipment, electronic manufacturing, and oil & gas services sectors... Among the notable laggards were the homebuilding, airline, home improvement retailing, department store, insurance, and application software groups... Elsewhere, the bond market was little changed, with the 10-year note down -3/32, bringing its yield up to 4.25%... NYSE Adv/Dec 2033/1254... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1996/1221.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12959)	1/8/2004 10:01:23 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

>> The bulls are romping and stomping Hi Don. Well each day that we get such a good price rise makes the sell decision closer for me. Today I sold just enough to eliminate the little bit of margin I had. Still 100% invested. Though not 110% as I had been for several months. I really think today's price rise makes a good old-fashioned 10% to 20% correction in the nasdaq much more likely. back under 2000. The question is when will it be, and what will be the precipitating event ? We'll get an opportunity tomorrow to see which model the stock market is following. My guess is that a really good employment figure (jobs addition over 200,000) will drive stock prices negatively. Because of fear of Fed raising. And so will a very weak number (under 100,000). For fear of economy sputtering. However a middle number (150,000 addition) will be just right to keep the gains going into earnings announcements. I'll be looking to see if this model is supported by tomorrow's reaction. I'm very convinced that nasdaq 2300 if reached quickly (by April) , will trigger the correction ahead of Q1 reports. My self-appointed task is to sell all at nasdaq 2250. I hope you were riding some good horses today. Sarmad