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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (1175)	1/9/2004 5:25:11 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 4232

I have two issues with this: There is no reason to assume that we will get the same mutations this year as last. Thus the 50 number isn't that meaningful - this year it might take 30 or 300 or 3000 mutations to get to a virulent form. The second issue is that I am not yet convinced that the superspreader issue is well enough understood. It may be that you need some combination of specific multiple strains, but it may also be that you simply need the right patient with a specific genetic makeup or existing condition or co-infection. So I guess my SARS clock is pretty fuzzy right now. Peter