Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4659)	1/9/2004 3:03:17 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

FYI: I'm also out of about half my once quite large energy portfolio as of today. I have several more names that go long term over the next week. Finger's crossed. At this point I'm more short, and a lot less "reflation hedged" than I was one, two and certainly three months ago. I don't know if I'm much of a bear on Japanese stocks, but I'd like to consider a fundamental long term short of the JGB, if I could accurately determine all the variables. Primary risk ST might be a rally in the Yen against the USD, so that might have to be hedged in some manner. I think the trade works if: 1. Japanese inflation kicks in (consider that likely), 2. govt credit quality deteriorates (high probability in time), or 3. Japanese economy recovers, and all is well (not likely beyond a hiccup, but I'll take it anyway). I don't see the status quo as sustainable at all.