To: TigerPaw who wrote (521744 ) 1/9/2004 4:14:58 PM From: Kenneth E. Phillipps Respond to of 769670 Oil, natural gas prices jump With chilly weather plaguing the U.S., oil, natural gas prices reach 10-months highs. January 9, 2004: 1:55 PM EST LONDON (Reuters) - World oil and natural gas prices jumped to their highest levels in about 10 months Friday, driven by fears that Arctic weather in the United States will eat into crude stocks that are already at their lowest since 1975. News that Royal Dutch/Shell Group, the world's second-largest oil company, was slashing its estimated proven reserves 20 percent also helped drive prices higher. New York light sweet crude for February delivery rose 60 cents to $34.58 a barrel after hitting $34.70, the highest price since last March 17, just before the U.S.-led war in Iraq. In London, Brent blend for March delivery added 36 cents firmer at $31.10 after earlier hitting a 10-month high of $31.55. February natural gas rose 27 cents to $7.36 per million BTU after touching $7.45 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since before the Iraq war. Natural gas hit $7.55 during trading last Dec. 10 but hasn't closed above Friday's high since Feb. 28, 2003. Data Wednesday showed crude inventories had fallen to 269 million barrels, their lowest since 1975, although inventories for some products used to make jet and other fuels rose more than expected. Concerns over inventory levels that are already at 28-year lows sprung up as temperatures were expected to stay below normal in the U.S. Northeast, the world's biggest consumer of heating oil. Weather forecasters AccuWeather and EarthSat said the Northeast will warm up next week, but then turn much colder again. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch/Shell Group cut its estimated proven oil and gas reserves by 20 percent Friday, triggering a slide in its stock and those of oil major oil producers. Traders said oil and gas prices could rise further. "This level is extremely important because if we are trading over this the funds will be back in buying again," said John Brady, an oil broker with ABN Amro. "We look for markets to trade towards contract highs, with the risk continuing to the upside on account of heightened weather-related demand and tight U.S.-crude stocks," Refco's Nauman Barakat wrote in a research note. Weak dollar Oil markets have also found support from the weak U.S. dollar, which OPEC has cited as a reason for sustaining high prices. Since world oil is priced in dollars, OPEC producers are concerned about the dollar's sharp decline. So far the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has maintained tight supplies, although the cartel's president, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, told Reuters Thursday that OPEC would like to see prices lower. The cartel is set to meet Feb. 10 in Algiers to consider production policy amid concern that there will be a seasonal downturn in demand in the second quarter. With oil prices so high, cutting output could prove politically difficult for the group, which has come under fire from the United States for saying high oil prices were justified given the weakness of the dollar. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said Friday the U.S. would continue to buy oil for its strategic reserves despite the rise in prices. "The volume is very modest and it doesn't affect the markets," he told reporters during a visit to Tokyo.