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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4701)	1/9/2004 8:44:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

In conclusion the ED and FF market is just unbelievably complacent about nearly free borrowing rates in the face of massive economic distortions. I fully understand what the FF and Eurodollars did do. I also said that June became FULL PRICED today. March 2004 IMO is beyond full price. That said. The ED futures still imply a 1 point hike by March of next year. I do not believe the FED is hiking before the election come hell or high water. On that basis, is the FED going to hike 1 full point from december to March 2005? Now let's take a look at my position. I am short the March 2005 95.250 Puts. Do you REALLY think that position is at risk? I am short DEC 2004 96.250 Puts. Is that position at risk? I am short June 2005 95.000 Puts Are those at risk? Do you see how I am trying to stay ahead of the curve even if I am wrong about my belief that rates are not going up huge. Note: I did and still do have other plays on, but the bulk of my position is on way OTM stuff. I took off somne stuff today that I collected 12 basis points for and I covered for 1.5 basis points. I am positioned to be wrong. I will get crucified only if I am INSANELY wrong. Do you have a different opinion of the risk of my position now vs before? I am seriously considering shorting some March 2004 puts to protect against insanity striking early (now that they are 100% fully valued). Every day that passes without a rate hike kills time off the puts that I am in. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (4701)	1/9/2004 8:55:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I also failed to mention a couple of other things. 1) I love this board title. I have commented on this several times publically on my board on the FOOL. I post links from you personally all the time, on enegry, on treasuries (even though you disagree with me), and on other things as well. 2) I am a bond bear. Just NOT treasuries. I think junk and corpoartes are going to get SLAUGHTERED on the basis of CREDIT RISK. 3) I find it interesting that bond bears are in total junk and if they get out intend to get back in on the next dip. Is that really being a bond bear? (no offense to Fillmore). 4) Greenspan sees the "mistake" that Japan made and does not intend to let it happen here. He is beyond reckless. The FED will buy the long bond if forced. That is my next cushion (remember short way OOTM time is my best friend). 5) I agree interest rates are too low. My opinion on that is totally meaningless! Greenspan's opinion is not meaningless as he is in control (for the time being, and that time being can be CONSIDERABLE) Mish