Bush Numbers Up At Start of Election Year
URL:http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,107941,00.html
Friday, January 09, 2004
By Dana Blanton
President George W. Bush's ratings are up and views on the national economy are more positive today, which isn't a bad way for the president to start a new year — not to mention a presidential election year.
In this week's FOX News poll, a majority of the public approves of the job Bush is doing as president and he easily bests several Democratic contenders in election matchups. The poll of registered voters, conducted January 7-8 by Opinion Dynamics Corporation, finds that 58 percent of Americans approve of Bush's overall job performance, up from 52 percent last month.
The president's higher rating is helped by increased approval among women, which is up eight points and now stands at 55 percent. While approval among Republicans remains constant at 86 percent, approval among Democrats is up five points from last month and currently stands at 29 percent.
Handling terrorism is where the president receives his strongest approval rating. The poll finds a 10 percentage point jump on Bush's handling of terrorism with 67 percent of Americans today saying they approve, up from 57 percent in November. On managing the economy, 50 percent approve and 42 percent disapprove — a reversal of the president's November ratings (43 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved).
Given the mid-December capture of former Iraqi Leader Saddam Hussein, it's not surprising that the president's largest gain is on his handling of Iraq. Currently 57 percent approve of how Bush is handling the situation with Iraq, up 11 points since November.
Similar results are seen when voters are asked to rate the Bush administration's policies. A 55 percent majority says they are satisfied with the administration's policies (25 percent "strongly" and 30 percent "somewhat") and about a third are dissatisfied (20 percent "strongly" and 14 percent "somewhat").
When asked to take into consideration all three years of the presidential term so far, about half (49 percent) say Bush has done a "good job," 28 percent say an "okay job" and 21 percent say he has done a "bad job" as president.
More people feel positively toward the president as a person than rate him positively on his job performance. Almost two-thirds of Americans (63 percent) say they "like" Bush, including 37 percent that "strongly" like him. One in five say they dislike Bush (12 percent "strongly" dislike and eight percent "somewhat"). Another 11 percent say they are "neutral."
More than twice as many Americans rate the nation's economy positively today as did this time last year. About a third (34 percent) say the economy is either in excellent or good condition now, compared to only 13 percent in January 2003. Just under half (48 percent) say jobs are available in their area, while 43 percent say there are not many or no jobs in their community.
"The past month has clearly been a positive one for the president," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "The two pivotal issues — the economy and Iraq — are both viewed as being better handled than they were a month ago. However, there are almost 10 more months before the election and we've seen that this president's ratings react quite a bit to current events. The question for both Bush and the Democrats is whether the positive trends will be sustained as 2004 progresses."
The economy is mentioned most often as the topic voters say they would like to hear President Bush discuss in his State of the Union Address later this month, followed by the topics of Iraq and terrorism.
Fully 70 percent of Americans say they feel optimistic about how things are going in the country right now. Majorities of all age groups and income levels are optimistic, as are majorities of men and women. Republicans (86 percent) are somewhat more optimistic than independents (73 percent), and considerably more so than Democrats (51 percent).
President Bush easily tops each of the potential Democratic presidential contenders he is matched against in this poll. If the election were held today, voters would support Bush over Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt by 26 points, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry by 22 points, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by 21 points, and retired Gen. Wesley Clark by 20 points.
When asked whether Bush or Clark would do a better job handling a foreign crisis such as Iraq, 50 percent say Bush and 30 percent say Clark. When matched against Dean on handling a foreign crisis, 57 percent would trust Bush to do a better job and 25 percent say Dean.
In the Democratic presidential primary question, Dean receives a plurality of support (20 percent) among self-identified Democrats, followed by Clark (13 percent), Lieberman (eight percent), Gephardt (seven percent), and Kerry (seven percent).
Two-thirds of Democrats today (67 percent) say they would prefer their party's presidential nominee be a candidate who opposed the Bush tax cuts, up from 55 percent six months ago. And on Iraq, 65 percent of Democrats now say they would prefer a candidate who opposed going to war, up from 56 percent in June.
On endorsements, less than half of Democrats (44 percent) say an endorsement by former Vice President Al Gore would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 14 percent say it would make them more likely to vote against a candidate, and 36 percent say a Gore endorsement would make no difference to their vote.
Slightly over half (53 percent) of Democrats say an endorsement by former President Bill Clinton would make them more inclined to vote for a candidate, 15 percent say against and 29 percent say Clinton's endorsement would make no difference. Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley have both made formal endorsements of Democratic hopeful Dean.
Homeland Security and Saddam
In December, the Department of Homeland Security raised the terror alert level to "high" or code orange. Almost all Americans (90 percent) say they went about life as usual after the threat level was increased. Only nine percent say they made changes in their day-to-day life in response to the increased alert.
In addition, a small minority of the public reports being inconvenienced by the code orange. Fully 88 percent say they have not been personally inconvenienced, but 12 percent say they have. Those living in the West are twice as likely as those in the South to say they have been inconvenienced.
Most Americans (86 percent) approve of the Department of Homeland Security's new program of digitally fingerprinting foreign visitors entering the United States. The current program exempts visitors from many European nations, but 83 percent of Americans would favor fingerprinting all non-citizens entering the country.
Are we safer with Saddam behind bars? The public is unclear, with 46 percent saying the capture of Saddam made the United States safer and 46 percent disagreeing. Opinion among men and women is divided, while Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to think the country is safer (62 percent and 31 percent respectively).
Americans think it is unlikely Saddam will answer the question on the top of everybody's list. About a quarter (26 percent) think Saddam will provide interrogators with information about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but two-thirds (67 percent) think it is unlikely he will. |
