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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (4718)	1/10/2004 11:23:21 AM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 110194

I am curious as to what technical indicators you are looking at to lead you to that conclusion. Frankly, I don't see them. Little joe

To: westpacific who wrote (4718)	1/10/2004 6:38:37 PM
From: rolatzi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

The dump in Oct 87 was caused by a tightening of interest rates. I don't see that happening this year. The Fed and Greenspan will do whatever is necessary to keep interest rates right where they are including supporting long term treasuries by buying them. He and Bernenke have said that much. Despite the continued delcine in the US dollar, long term interest rates have not gone up. Weakness in the economy like yesterdays employment report was greeting with a big decline in interest rates. In addition this is the presidential election year a bullish year in the four year Kitchin cycle. I believe they will keep the economy well afloat until after the presidential election next November. Ro

To: westpacific who wrote (4718)	1/10/2004 8:26:21 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

>>And all my technical data tells me it will be an Oct 87 like event, not a slow bleed. << I've wondered about this ...how do you predict -- I think typical second leg downs tend to work this way. It's the recognition that folks have been fooled a second time that is especially damaging psychologically. I held on to 4 "triples" and let them go to ~ "doubles" on that homie bounce on Fri, thinking there will be another shoe to drop soon -- only booked one position -- a double, which was a repeat dip of a triple a few days prior (but only because I have the lower strike) -- I really think those stocks are busted.