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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4723)	1/10/2004 12:56:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

1.5% does not bother me (depending on the timeframe) It would bother me a lot if it happened tomorrow. If it happens in June of next year or even DEC of this year it would not bother me one bit. I am just trying to stay ahead of the curve. For march and june of 2005 I am short 95's and 96's 96 is a 3.75% interest rate. Is that gonna happen? I have 10 september 2004 futures that I got late in the game at 98.22. Those rose to 98.47 on Fri. I got 1/2 of the total expected move in a day! Well I'm not sticking around for the last bit. Taking profits on Monday on those but will replace it with 10 short puts sep 04 97.75. They are giving 7 basis points. Now are eurordollar futures likely to reverse down to an implied 2% rate by september of this year, given greenspans stance and the jobs data we saw? I do not think so, and I doubt at this point you do either. See how I am trying to stay just ahead of the move and at the same time giving myself enough cushion to be wrong? A 1/4 or 1/2 hike in Sept is not going to hurt me one bit in the stuff I am in. A 1 point hike by March of 2005 will not hurt one bit either (just temporarily). We will need enormous hikes (or unexpected hikes) QUICK in the game to crush me. By taking profits on Friday and more on Monday, I am lessening the risk of that happening all the time, yet still keeping considerable exposure on. Friday was a huge day for me and I am taking more profits on Monday and rolling some of the riskier stuff to what will be way OOTM puts. All of my plays have always given myself a cushion over implied FF rates. Mish

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4723)	1/10/2004 6:06:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Eurodollars, Euribor, Short Sterling Charts of interest rate futures in the US eurodollar March 05 futuresource.com Europe Euribor March 05 futuresource.com British Pound Short Sterling March 05 futuresource.com Hmm of these it looks like the BP has the most room to run I was hoping to find a bargain overseas but they all bottomed in DEC at once. Crap! The global race to zero% rates took a big step forward in December. ggg Thoughts on these anyone? BP seems like the most room to run. What is the best value here? Where can I see option prices on these babies? Any chance of a hike in GB or are they done? No chance in euroland IMO but chart has had an enormous runup too. I will tell you this. Look at that nice W shaped bottom. Look at ED05 for a classic consolodation breakout (complete with one last shakeout intraday breaking support) futuresource.com Discussion any and all. Mish