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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4724)	1/10/2004 11:59:58 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

am looking at NCEN and LEND. At the moment, I believe they may actually be heading into their best cycle. yeah, but will loan growth exceed the delinquency increase?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4724)	1/10/2004 7:30:00 PM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 110194

Two great looking charts which I would buy on a high volume breakout to new highs and follow with a close stop, if I had the funds. Little joe

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4724)	1/10/2004 9:05:57 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<endless supply of big banks that are willing to buy these subprime loans>>> How do you know who is buying NCEN ABS? I'd think the buyers are not the banks, but funds. Most banks are deep in subprime lending themselves.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4724)	1/11/2004 5:21:25 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Speaking of Bubbles - Euro country is burned down, and the days of the euro-boom are counted Germany punished with the EZB and the community currency doubles.(Alta Vista Translationn - far from adequate but one can get the concept - like Italy saving around EUR 50 Billion a year on Germany expense and hindert lower interest rates to start a recovery) wams.de of the author is an economist and well-known as a euro-opponent The fact that it would come with the euro-revaluation so club-thickly had not even foreseen the Warner before its introduction. From the outset it was clearly that it with the community currency to a distribution of burdens between to be enough and poor European Union states would come, additional beyond and to the agreed upon subsidies. In the poorer European Union national economies released by the euro from foreign exchange risk, capital poverty and high interest inevitably a wirtschaftswunder would break - only unfortunately a high-grade inflatorisch financed off; because they could adjust missing capital now for them over cheap eurocredits and kapitalimporte. But the father of this "miracle" at the European periphery, which would have country with the hardest currency and strongest capital formation, i.e. Germany, of it nothing. It remained sitting on its old interest and low inflation rates and would get in such a way - despite its high savings - the highest material interest level in completely euro country! Only with of Germany renouncement of the German Marks it became possible, the devaluation premiums of the European weak currencies to shift from Lira, peseta, peso, Drachme, Punt and so on on the euro and communities. Germany gave "to be" zinsniveau to these countries. However over the halskrause (Italy staats)verschuldete "saves" since then annually 50 billion euro and more at interest on its national debt! And which has Germany, which noble donors, but get? Now, since it would be bitterly necessary to lower the interest finally also here to country investment-fairly the inflation of the old weak currency countries forces the EZB to the interest-political nothing doing. Also with the second gift at Europe, the German benefactor placed himself his own leg to the stability pact. Against label and objective the pact recompences that Stabilitaetssuender, which the inflation fills at home the tax collector's offices up to the edge, while the sample boys in things stability - for a long time France and Germany - are to be punished for the fact that them stability-causes the tax receipts away-break - with the grotesque consequence that an European Union organ sues the other one now. What arranges the international financial markets to evaluate the currency of this only economically knirschenden community more highly than the unquestioned world currency dollar? Pure anti-Americaism cannot be it, and also not the chronic double deficit of the US national economy. Because the budget deficit beacons the US economic situation, as one sees: with increasing success. And the US deficit on the balance of payments on current account supports the world economy, which would already long have fallen without the import surpluses of the USA (the export surpluses of the other nations, also Germany). And the weak US dollar? Isn't it intended, in order to bring the export economic situation on still higher routes? Probably hardly. The simplest explanation for the dollar fall of prices is few recognized to: The dollar suffers not from president Bushs reductions of taxes and setting in motion programs, but from its central bank head Alan Greenspan. As the stock exchange blister of the 90's-years if necessary marginally something with the material productivity jumps of the IT industry to do had, but thus that there was too much and to cheap money for professional speculating in shares, then has also the present fall of prices their actual reason in the policy of the US central bank. Their interest is economic situation and not balance of payments on current account-oriented, thus internationally seen in addition low. Therefore short term money flows into the euro. But at the latest if the US economic situation proves as substantially more durable as the torn in Europe and blocked in Germany, that will change, particularly since then the US Fed system will not any longer hesitate to make its US interest more attractive for in and foreign dollar investors. The days of the euro-boom are thus counted. But it was redundant and leaves traces. Currencies should be not only internally, but also externally stably and speculation. Since there is no more world monetary system, which stabilizes the interest policies of the central banks coordinated and in this way currency relations and rates of exchange, central banks this must do on one's own and responsibility - and they refuse themselves exactly there. The large central banks of the world (the USA, England, Japan, European Union) act "national", than they would be allowed to do it in the age of globalization and acute Crash dangers of the international financial markets. Therefore again and again speculation booms and falls of prices break out at the stock exchanges, where the small saver comes to damage and increasingly more strongly in the currency markets, under what the export trade and industry suffers and of their dependent jobs are lost. Germany as investment like export-dependent national economy is with EZB and euro doubles "punished". The EZB cannot lower (and may) in view of the Binneninflationsgefahr their interest, particularly since this danger with the European Union extension to the East will win still at Dramatik. And whether the euro devalues as after its introduction or revalues like now, it is vital for the competitive ability of an export nation such as Germany, does not fit however not into the domestic market-oriented concept of the EZB. However Germany its tasks of structure masters, the euro is not not helpful thereby. A mistake was to be believed, it was a "reform whip" (Wolfgang Schaeuble). It loads of Germany investments and exports and blocks over the stability pact the employment of the economic situation-political equipment, a problem, which the lucky USA do not know. Even if it is not to be changed at present, one must know it and let the euro-partners and European Union their commissioners in Brussels know. Germany does more for Europe, than it has in the foreseeable future economically from it. Only: Europe without a dynamic Germany loses at attractiveness, co-operation and at the gloss of its currency. Articles appeared on 11 January 2004