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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4778)	1/11/2004 12:44:59 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Ramsey, I agree with you that the employment is the number one fundamental factor. Greenspan will not do anything to disturb RE. The moment when the banks become reluctant in funding loans to subprime buyers will mark the inflection point. But I think that the market will sense the coming RE lull (or bust) well in advance and PMI stocks are to be the first to feel it. Another thing to watch is the spread between mortgage rates and 10 year treasury yield. I expect this spread to widen. What are your early indicators of a coming turn?