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Politics : HOWARD DEAN -THE NEXT PRESIDENT? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (1802)	1/11/2004 6:46:32 PM
From: sylvester80	Respond to of 3079

>>>well I am predicting a very high voter turnout this time And you would be right. I know people that have never voted in their lives that plan to vote on this one. And all AGAINST Bush.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (1802)	1/11/2004 10:45:21 PM
From: Ann Corrigan	Respond to of 3079

I've heard PA categorized as a swing state, but state elected Democrat governor last yr after 8yrs of Tom Ridge. It went for Al Gore in 2000(much to my chagrin at the time). PA belongs in Dem column.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (1802)	1/12/2004 12:17:51 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Respond to of 3079

I'd sure like to know what those 13 states are. I am fairly certain they include MO, FLA, Ohio but who else? The states with the closest margins last time, in order of closeness: Florida (Bush .01%) New Mexico (Gore .06%) Wisconsin (Gore .22%) Iowa (Gore .32%) Oregon (Gore .44%) New Hampshire (Bush 1.27%) Minnesota (Gore 2.4%) Missouri (Bush 3.34%) Ohio (Bush 3.51%) Nevada (Bush 3.54%) Tennessee (Bush 3.87%) Pennsylvania (Gore 4.17%) Maine (Gore 5.12%) Those are the top 13. Here are the next 5: Michigan (Gore 5.13%) Arkansas (Bush 5.45%) Washington (Gore 5.58%) West Virginia (Bush 6.02%) Arizona (Bush 6.29%) One of the things that happened to Gore last time was that two states he thought were not true battlegrounds (Tennessee and West Virginia) went to Bush by fairly comfortable margins. A very interesting and detailed study of the 2000 election describes how the parties each categorized the states into five groups: Base Republican, Marginal Republican, Battleground, Marginal Democratic, and Base Democratic: la.utexas.edu The parties classified 42 states and DC in the same manner; they classified 8 states differently from one another (CA, TN, WA, WV, LA, VA, NC, NH). Gore's campaign identified 13 battleground states. They were: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Arkansas, Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania. (See table 2 about three pages from the end of the linked PDF file). Bush's campaign identified 16 battleground states: 12 of Gore's 13 (all except Louisiana, which Bush called Marginal Republican), New Hampshire, Tennessee, Washington, and West Virginia. Gore's campaign had New Hampshire as Marginal Republican, and Tennessee, Washington, and West Virginia as Marginal Democratic. New Hampshire ended up very close and probably belonged in the battleground category. Bush won two of Gore's misclassified "Marginal Democratic" states by a decent margin: Tennessee and West Virginia. One agreed battleground state, Delaware, was actually won easily by Gore; the others were all fairly close.