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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (23905)	1/11/2004 3:38:11 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793939

"'Four million cultural conservatives didn't vote in 2000,' a GOP strategist said, 'and Howard Dean has them salivating to turn out for us.'" New York Daily News - nydailynews.com W team's sizing up Dean By THOMAS M. DeFRANK DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF Sunday, January 11th, 2004 WASHINGTON - In the spring of 1992, President George Bush confided to a friend that despite fears of a recession, his reelection was shaping up nicely. "The economy is going to recover," Bush predicted, "and then people won't vote for a guy like [Bill] Clinton with no foreign policy experience." A dozen years and two Clinton presidencies later, could another President Bush be making the same mistake by underestimating Howard Dean? Absolutely not, insist Bush-Cheney campaign handlers, who say an unusually polarized electorate guarantees a hard-fought - and close - election. White House political guru Karl Rove and campaign manager Ken Mehlman have been furiously trying to lower expectations for weeks - but some top Bush lieutenants didn't get the curb-your-enthusiasm memo. "I don't think we're underestimating Dean at all," a prominent GOP official with close ties to Bush told the Daily News. "He's so far to the left that he's our dream candidate." The latest Gallup Poll found Bush crushing Dean by a whopping 59%-37% margin, and the former Vermont governor has come under increasing assault from his Democratic rivals as a flawed nominee who will lead the party to ignominious defeat. Even so, senior Bush officials expect Dean to survive the intramural onslaught and unify the party behind his candidacy by the July convention. "We're happy to run against him, but the guy has proven himself a good campaigner and he's been able to stay a step ahead of the others," one Bush operative noted. "He's no dummy. He'll move to the middle soon. "Truthfully, I can't figure out how he can beat Bush short of a lot of horrible things happening," he added. "But we still don't have a lot of margin for error." The Daily News reported Dec. 10 that Bush political strategists were gleeful that Dean appeared to have the nomination sewn up. A top official predicted Dean would win only five states, adding: "The best thing Bush has going for him is that Dean is a weak Michael Dukakis." But even the liberal former Massachusetts governor got 46% of the vote in the 1988 election against Bush's father - and White House vote-counters say Dean should easily poll as well. "But do a few things right and you're at 48 or 49," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "From there it doesn't take too many more deaths in Iraq or some bad economic news before there could be another one-term Bush. "Dean is not the ideal candidate, but in a polarized country a not-ideal candidate can win. Bush is certainly justified in being confident, but overconfidence could beat them." Bush strategists deny they're measuring the drapes for a second term, but argue there's a huge difference between waging a respectable race and being in a position to win. They think Dean's verbal gaffes have created a "stature gap" compared with Bush, and are convinced his pro-tax, pro-choice, anti-war posture energizes GOP core supporters. "Four million cultural conservatives didn't vote in 2000," a GOP strategist said, "and Howard Dean has them salivating to turn out for us."