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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44543)	1/12/2004 12:29:28 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi Mqurice, Humans will react aggressively and I suppose even a major outbreak would be less catastrophic than those of previous influenza epidemics. Actually, the world is long overdue for a pandemic influenza outbreak. SARS seems to fit the bill, but it would have to go global with hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths to qualify as pandemic. Time will tell. The world's population has expanded significantly since the previous pandemic, so the sheer raw numbers should be much higher than ever before seen. While modern medicine has made significant advances in the field of virology, mankind is nowhere near able to avoid the pandemics. Because it's been so long since the world has seen a pandemic, no nation is prepared for the consequences. When it comes, it comes; and the deaths and suffering will be tremendous. Maybe Henry would care to offer some insights on pandemics??? KJC

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44543)	1/12/2004 12:59:15 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Mqurice, Here is a short synopsis on the pandemic of 1918, which is the most recent global pandemic influenza. stanford.edu As you read through the article (relatively short), you should be struck by the similarities between SARS and the outbreak in 1918, and the similarities between world conditions then and now. It's truly remarkable... KJC

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44543)	1/12/2004 5:02:45 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

Actually, last year there were 5 deaths in the first 305 reported cases in Guangdong, but they may have all been linked to 1 case (a seafood merchant who was a supper spreader). WHO still has not confirmed Shenzen case, but is looking into it discuss.agonist.org