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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrBuzz who wrote (18447)	1/12/2004 12:14:40 PM
From: Rextar98	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

To:Kirk who wrote (12889) From: Joe Smith Sunday, Jan 11, 2004 1:14 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12894 You have to give them credit for a good summation of the bear case. Pretty well done even if you think they are looking the wrong way... Most of it is poor statistical logic...To say that the bear case must be on deck because the bull case is winning the day is very poor strategy. Better to follow the bull case until the bear case can finally gain the upper hand. That same kind of poor thinking had bulls buying every dip and getting slaughtered again and again in 2001-2002, assuming that someday the bear had to end. If they had just waited for the higher low in 2003 to dip their feet, they would have made out so well. THis is like the poor reasoning that if the coin has been heads six times in a row, it is about time for a tails. Nothing is predetermined. Each time you flip a coin, it is as likely to flip heads as tails. Better to look at the current conditions to see if there is anything to influence the coin so that it is more likely to flip one way or the other. The past behavior tells us nothing. Perhaps this "bubble" will burst some day and we will see Dow 1000. But, will that be this year, this decade, this century...? I do not see how that should affect my current investment strategy.