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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (49904)	1/12/2004 12:22:48 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Maybe it is in the best interest of the US (given the new environment) that the USD be lower. The competition greatest advantage is low cost, so why not deliver a one two punch with products that are high quality AND low cost? The problem is not technology but wages. The difference between US wages and those in some Asian countries is so very much that a 30% devaluation in USD does not help much to close the gap, I am afraid. Yes, however... if wages were to be reduced, the US is in a far better position to do so, as I believe that the Unions at some point will either "see the light" or else become irrelevant. As for technology, I meant to say that there are some fields (biotech, nano-technology) where the US is still a leader, so cheap labor in those fields may not be needed. At large, the US population has a better mindset to do what it is needed to compete, whereas the Europeans I doubt they are willing (or even able) to do so. In fact a possible "partnership" of sorts with Mexico, and/or the rest of Latin America could be a possibility to counter Chinese cheap products... I mean why not go to Bolivia and train some people there... to manufacture something.... or use Colombian former cocaine farmers to do similar ? The Euro is UP because the dollar is down, not because of the Euros bright propects. Eurozone is officially out of recession, and there does not seem to be a need to put the pedal to the floor. ECB might be content to just watch the economy move back to health slowly. ok... I am assuming you do not see Chinese [future] production capabilities as a threat I suppose and the Europeans will rely exclusively in the high quality of their products to maintain a healthy economy. [and maintaining good benefits for their workers and a 10% plus unemployment level --but who cares since the high taxes compensate for their lack of income-- and motivate them to sit on their butts instead] In my eyes, The US cannot continue to assume we are living in the 1945-1970 period, things are changing and they are doing so very rapidly. SE Asia and Latin America will become important competitors, so bold moves are needed... One of the weapons I see of the third world is cheap labor and a cheap currency... so is the US going to sit just watching and allow this to happen ? Europe seems to be more prone to this attitude [sit & watch]. Why is China suppressing their own currency ? Maybe it s just a product of my imagination and all these things are simply not possible because we are dependant on some dinosaur-minded bureaucrats... If so... you are probably right on all counts. Maybe I am all confused and lost -gg

To: zonder who wrote (49904)	1/12/2004 12:58:02 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

The difference between US wages and those in some Asian countries is so very much that a 30% devaluation in USD does not help much to close the gap And the difference between European wages and those in some Asian countries is ....... ? What? You think they're not out to eat your dinner too?

To: zonder who wrote (49904)	1/12/2004 2:06:17 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Such interventions are serious jolts that need to be administered in small and careful doses, IN ADVANCE of anticipated problems. Think of the economy not as a bike you can turn, accelerate, and skid to a halt in seconds, but as a boat in a marina - you give it a bit of gas and then wait for it to turn, then you give a bit more of gas steering it in the desired direction, wait a bit more for the turn to take place... Well... Extra, extra... read the latest... -g forbes.com NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed against the euro on Monday, drawing support from comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who said "brutal" currency moves were unwelcome. Trichet, speaking after a meeting of G10 central bankers in Basel, Switzerland, said: "There was a mention by Europe that excess volatility and brutal moves were not welcome and not appropriate. We are concerned. We are not indifferent." he added. Actually.... I am really confused... I now believe, (contrary to my own past beliefs), that governments actually have the technology that makes them far more capable to manipulate [large] markets to their own benefit. In the third world countries they do it all the time and they are capable of doing so because they are small markets. Actually, more than governments, I believe that there are sizable industrial groups working in cahoots with local brokers to manipulate things as they see fit. I am beginning to be convinced that the FED has that technology now... It is the only "logical" explanation as to what is happening, and it seems that the stakes keep getting higher and higher... to the point that they are so deep into this that "failure is not an option" _________ TRICHET COMMENT RAISES INTERVENTION RISK? Some analysts said Trichet's statements pose the risk of possible ECB intervention to sell the euro against the dollar. "Today's remarks certainly do move us marginally nearer to unilateral ECB action to sell the euro/dollar," said Sean Callow, currency strategist at IDEAGlobal in New York. "But no doubt, the ECB would prefer to use threats than overt intervention," he added. OOOOPSSSSS.... getting too hot up there ? -g never mind what they say... follow what they do. perhaps the big ole' currency/economy container ship is morphing into a siwft and agile Ducati motorcycle... no ? it is a doggie dog world out there... wooooof wooooof