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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4824)	1/12/2004 8:10:53 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, <<Everybody wants to borrow in USD, and take the money somewhere else>> ... yup, because it is the NToeAwsBe (see definition achamchen.com :0) and the investor electorates are voting Message 19680750 . I am simply playing in accordance with my script Message 19680503 . In regard to the Dollar, done this, Message 19285485 September 8th, 2003 ... I have issued instruction to retire my JYen loan with a USD loan, since USD is only going for 3% whereas JYen is going at 1.8%, given that I figure USD will crash down, and JYen will stay even or go up, at some point in 2004. ... and advising so ... Message 19679943 <<January 11th, 2004 We should at least consider borrowing in the same currency as the USD officialdom does, counting on the USD officialdom to debase the currency more and more rapidly. We must think about using the USD borrowings to buy things that matter, meaning stuff that is immune to debasement. This may be the new world order. At some point, we must consider not only refrain from voting for USD space, but actually voting against USD space, and using USD leverage to do so.>> I am figuring the truly Big Play of 2004 may be in this playbook Message 19675716 Chugs, Jay

To: russwinter who wrote (4824)	1/12/2004 8:54:29 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Buying 3 Dec 04 Euribor futures unhedged Buying 10 (approx do not know yet) June Strike 98.00 calls Taking off 7 Sep 04 Eurodollar futures and buying back CC's. Upside potential is greater and risk might even be less after this combined play is made. In effect I am executing my plan. Taking profits on eurodollars and rolling some of it to Euribor. I am betting Europe will cut. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (4824)	1/12/2004 10:56:07 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

This morning reversal of trend as a result of some meaningless comments by ECB banker de.biz.yahoo.com indicated to me that to many people are short the USD and to many are just selling the "pops". Germany exports to the US in October are down 14.5% YoY according to German gov. statistics consistent to the EUR rise. In October the EUR was about 10% lower than today. My conclusion is that in due time the statistics will reveal a lower trade deficit, and may spark a USD short covering. BWDIK Haim me worry ??? de.biz.yahoo.com TOP-THEMA-EZB äußert zunehmende Sorge über Euro-Höhenflug Montag 12. Januar 2004, 16:20 Uhr Basel, 12. Jan (Reuters) - Die Staaten der Euro-Zone und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) äußern zunehmende Sorge über den rasanten Höhenflug der Gemeinschaftswährung. Aus dem Währungsraum werden Forderungen an die USA nach einem gemeinsamen Vorgehen in dieser Frage laut. EZB-Chef Jean-Claude Trichet äußerte sich am Montag nach einem Treffen mit seinen Kollegen aus der so genannten G10-Gruppe besorgt über die jüngsten Wechselkursbewegungen. Der Euro reagierte auf die Verschärfung des Tonfalls der Notenbanker mit Kursverlusten, nachdem er am Vormittag knapp unter 1,29 Dollar noch ein neues Rekordhoch markiert hatte. Frankreich forderte mit Blick auf die USA zügige gemeinsame Anstrengungen, um angemessenere Wechselkurse zu erreichen. In Europa wachsen Befürchtungen, die Euro-Aufwertung werde die heimische Exportwirtschaft und damit die Konjunkturerholung insgesamt bremsen. Euro-Rekordhoch belastet Autowerte Montag 12. Januar 2004, 10:21 Uhr Frankfurt, 12. Jan (Reuters) - Die europäischen Automobilaktien haben am Montag nach Einschätzung von Börsianern unter einem weiter steigenden Euro gelitten. Der im Jahresvergleich um mehr als 20 Cent gestiegene Euro belaste die europäischen Fahrzeughersteller immer mehr, begründeten Börsianer. Die Gemeinschaftswährung erzielte am Morgen mit 1,2898 Dollar ein Rekordhoch. Ein starker Euro verteuert die Exporte der Konzerne auf den weltgrößten Automarkt USA.