Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: playavermont who wrote (3080)	1/12/2004 3:27:11 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

playavemont.... Thanks for the post.... Here's the my Chart TA... Opinion follows with another post $TNX Chart stockcharts.com[h,a]dcoannay[dd][pb200!f][iud21!lb14!lh14,3!la9,21,6][J14178361,Y]&pref=G 10 year yield's been coiled since Sept 2003... that coil remains intact with 8 moves The expanding wedges are also intact 200dma has held Support off 41.17 appears to be holding One downward Internal Trend line has been broken A second ITL is holdng (black) Downward Pitchforks upper tine has held onto this coil for it's duration... the lower target for this pitchfork is 35± The cycles of the various indicators suggests further downward pressure.

To: playavermont who wrote (3080)	1/12/2004 4:03:56 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

$UST - 10 year Note Price Chart TA stockcharts.com[h,a]daoannay[dd][p][ilb14!ld21!lh14,3!la8,21,5][J10225723,Y]&pref=G Notice the positive reversal off the RSI and confirmed by MACD Blue Pitchfork lower tines have held.. median line active Internal Trendlines are broken 50% Fib Retrace is upper resistence Red Pitchfork median line is active 200 sma is active

To: playavermont who wrote (3080)	1/12/2004 4:44:31 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

playavemont... Okay, IMO only..... This weekends surfacing news stories have altered some of the landscape and previously held views of the market place. One the Royal Dutch announcement, and two the Paul O'Niell book and his devout revelations. Will other oil companies also announce smaller reserves and drive up prices....? Will O'Neills chatter disrupt the administration...? Why do long-term rates decline at all... declining Fed interest rates and/or abundant number of buyers... perhaps we saw some fear creep in... or intervention by China/Japan to maintain a balance....? While the Fed has been increasing liquidity... the M3 money supply chart is also important... and shows declining money supply over the last 6 months. The charts tell me the 10 year is still in a coil with resolution unresolved, but with a tilt towards higher prices.... hard to believe they could print lower yields...? No fear for me yet on stocks, maybe the SPX closes a lower gap, but this weekends activity has got my attention and remains a concern. Bill Gross of Pimco has an excellent article on 2004 and it will be interesting if his tiune changes afer this last weekend? pimco.com

To: playavermont who wrote (3080)	3/4/2004 2:59:12 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12410

Money, Gold, and the Great Depression Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Economic Policy, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Virginia March 2, 2004 federalreserve.gov I am pleased to be able to present the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Economic Policy here at Washington and Lee University. As you may know, Willis was an important figure in the early history of my current employer, the Federal Reserve System. While he was a professor at Washington and Lee, Willis advised Senator Carter Glass of Virginia, one of the key legislators involved in the founding of the Federal Reserve. Willis also served on the National Monetary Commission, which recommended the creation of the Federal Reserve, and he went on to become the research director at the Federal Reserve from 1918 to 1922. At the Federal Reserve, Willis pushed for the development of new and better economic statistics, facing the resistance of those who took the view that too many facts only confuse the issue. Willis was also the first editor of the Federal Reserve Bulletin, the official publication of the Fed, which in Willis's time as well as today provides a wealth of economic statistics. As an illustration of the intellectual atmosphere in Washington at the time he served, Willis reported that when the first copy of the Bulletin was presented to the Secretary of the Treasury, the esteemed Secretary replied, "This Government ain't going into the newspaper business." Like Parker Willis, I was a professor myself before coming to the Federal Reserve Board. One topic of particular interest to me as a researcher was the performance of the Federal Reserve in its early days, particularly the part played by the young U.S. central bank in the Great Depression of the 1930s.1 In honor of Willis's important contribution to the design and creation of the Federal Reserve, I will speak today about the role of the Federal Reserve and of monetary factors more generally in the origin and propagation of the Great Depression. Let me offer two caveats before I begin: First, as I mentioned, H. Parker Willis resigned from the Fed in 1922, to take a post at Columbia University; thus, he is not implicated in any of the mistakes that the Federal Reserve made in the late 1920s and early 1930s. Second, the views I will express today are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System. The number of people with personal memory of the Great Depression is fast shrinking with........