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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4865)	1/12/2004 1:08:43 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RW, RE: "Even if they were to act on rates today, I think a high single digits CPI rate is out of the bag already, and double digits on intermediate input prices." If your estimates are correct (and I strongly believe they are) one can only imagine the situation if interest rates are left alone until 2005. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (4865)	1/12/2004 1:22:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I underline CONTINUE, because it's clear to me after reading Bernanke in particular, that the FED uses ancient, pre-history price models, and certainly not real time dynamic ones (such as today's food moonshot), in their decision making. They are not only well behind the inflation curve, but the curve is doing a Jesse Owen's like sprint down the track ahead of them, while they stand there and put weird mushroom substances in their pipes. LMAO Note: I am laughing with you not at you (assuming of course that you are indeed laughing). That said, I do not think food prices are a result of the the falling US$. IMO They are the result of folks in China having a genuine recovery as opposed to our BS "recovery" and a willingness (as well as more money)to buy more of them. Their standard of living is rising. I do not think tomatoes or potatoes or corn or whatever will fall IF greenspan were to hike. Perhaps I am wrong but the point is MOOT and here is why: You are making an assupmtion, and IMO a wrong one that 1) The FED cares about gold and silver 2) It would act to do something about it even if it did 3) I am sure they DO care about food prices however..... 4) I am not sure they can do anything about it 5) even IF they could they have other worries mainly..... 6) jobs and wage inflation The Fed clearly is striving for wage inflation and everything else at this point is TOTALLY moot. You might not like that, and I might not like that, but that is. IT JUST IS. A) It is what they have repeatedly said B) more important, it is how they are acting Which leads us to the next question but you arleady know my answer. To support the US$, is Greenspan more likely to hike or Europe and GB more likely to cut? Mish