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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4883)	1/12/2004 7:55:30 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 110194

Hi Russ, <<China to revalue yuan in first quarter of 2004>> I had always thought that as long as China and Taiwan are screaming at each other, all is fine between them. What I have been alerted to is that while Taiwan is still shouting at China, China has stopped talking back. This is not a potential bad sign, but is a bad sign for a potential. Taiwan referendum topic will be dictated by Chen Shui-bian on February 20th, and the referendum will be held in March. I think China will not revalue its currency in the first quarter. Even if I did believe that China will revalue in the first quarter, I am not in position nor do I want to put myself in position to benefit. Chugs, Jay

To: russwinter who wrote (4883)	1/12/2004 8:52:00 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

Don't know the correlation but everything 'cept aluminum is up on the TOCOM - silver (now limit up) must be playing catch up because the market was closed there yesterday (today). tocom.or.jp Regards, ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (4883)	1/12/2004 9:10:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From Heinz i still think the only flation we'll get will have a 'd' in front. both industrial overcapacities and debt have continued to grow hugely over the past 3 years on a global basis...there won't be no 'easy way out' for the debtors. and the coming consumer recession in the US will worsen the deflationary gap. my prediction remains, new all time lows in yields this year ( obviously, NOT on corporate or emerging market debt... ) . Date: Mon Jan 12 2004 16:40 but EVERYBODY is positioned for higher rates, because don't you know, everybody 'knows' they will rise, right? Coutrywide 'hurting from lower rates' - ouch: there will be bloody murder when the scramble to get out of all those wrong-way hedges and mismatched durations ensues. Date: Mon Jan 12 2004 14:34 trotsky (XAU) ID#377387: another day of soggy performance...probably a warning sign at this stage. something's not right...institutional money flows negative as well.

To: russwinter who wrote (4883)	1/12/2004 9:46:38 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

russwinter, that may be Goldman Sachs idea. I have found, in reading many articles in Chinese, that many parties with vested interest would promote these ideas as if they are the official policy. In my opinion, recent decisions from China are extremely pragmatic. They will not make a move unless it is absolutely necessary. Right now, I don't see any reason why China would want to get off the peg. On the other hand, if you tell me that China had quietly converted all the US$ reserves into other currencies, and have sold off most of the treasuries or agency papers, then look out.