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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (123118)	1/12/2004 10:36:56 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The good will of Iraq (news - web sites)'s Shiite majority, so crucial to the success of U.S. policy, may be eroding. Strong opposition by a top Shiite cleric to key parts of a U.S. political blueprint for Iraq and the spread of violent protests in Shiite areas suggest a dangerous trend. Maybe it is.. Which is why it's important that the coalition forces not be seen as caving to Sunni terrorism and making deals with the former Baathists.. Because that then sets the tone for dealing with any unruly Shiite uprisings, which may require use of force to put down.. Al-Sistani is important, but he must be made aware that the coalition will respond to Shiite terrorism in the same manner that we have responded to that of the Sunnis and Baathist resistance. At the same time, he must be reassured that Shiites will possess a fair representation in any new Iraqi government, but that we're not about to open Iraqi rule to a form of mob rule, or tyranny of the majority. A federation, with autonomous provinces, is probably the best that can be achieved in Iraq. It will require popular representation, as well as equal representation between the ethnic groups.. (kind of like a Senate and House of Representatives). A parlimentarian form of government, IMO, would be very dangerous and create more instability in Iraq. In ethnically diverse nations, such as Iraq, it's all important that there are numerous checks and balances similar to what exists in the US (which is the ultimate in diverse societies). And we must be willing to be frank, without being rude, in making clear that we understand that Al-Sistani hopes to use the current Shiite majority to bring Shiite control to Iraq. That would be as unacceptable as permitting the Sunnis or Kurds to have such overwhelming control of the country. Bottom line... carrot and stick approach... and really asking Al-Sistani if open revolt is the path he wants to lead his people down. The US must maintain it's position as a balancing power, preventing any single ethnicity from gaining two much power over the others. Hawk