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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18417)	1/13/2004 10:35:36 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78742

re ALVR Spekulatius, on surface it is hard to believe that ALVR went from $1.86 to $13 in 11 months while it is still losing money. But I found it normal from my past experience. The market always look ahead 6-12 months regarding a company. The current $13 price tag pretty much anticipate that ALVR will make about $0.25 in 2004, and I think it is possible to make $0.5-0.8 in 2005. That's why I think more upside is possible. Enron was on the cover page of Fortune as the number 1 best performing SP500 stock in 1999(or another year). The profit number and estimates were very good. The point is current earnings and analyst estimates are not reliable. I believe the earnings are unpredictable in most cases, especially the analyst estimates. One has to make a call on if the earning will beat the estimates 6-12 months ahead. One should never look back the earnings and current earnings. I am making the call that ALVR will beat estimates so I think it still have chance to go up. As for why I made that call - it is hard work DD, including flying to China and talk to the telecom administration, ALVR customers, integrators and management, talk to their competitors, know the industry and company, use my 20 years IT industry insight including successfully found and grew a company, ... When you hear someone was able to have his number 1 largest holding grow 6x or 20x while still holding the position, it is usually not pure luck. ALVR is close to my third home-run (I define it as 10x) after PHTN and SINA, both 20 baggers. I think it is likely a 10 bagger for me, and even a potential 20 bagger again if everything goes smoothly as it is now.