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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (4939)	1/13/2004 2:46:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Sept05 Eurodollars just took out 97.00 another 150+ basis points to go. ggg 150*25 =$3750 per future M

To: yard_man who wrote (4939)	1/13/2004 3:24:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

My theory and Plungers as well is that a surprise rate cut in Euroland is coming. At that time (after insisting there would not cut) they will do so and cause mammoth short covering in the US$. If they pile on for a few days, with the help of Japan, we can see a lock limit up on the US$ for a couple days perhaps. I would NOT want to be short the US$ here at all. The safe way to play for this is to buy Euribor interest rate calls or Euribor futures. Even if there is not cut, as long as there is no hike (a very safe bet IMO) the Euribor plays should appreciate. Eurodollars should also rise if Europe cuts and should rise even if they do not (assuming you belive the FED is not hiking or not hiking as much as implied) If I was to bet on the US$ I would be buying calls now, not puts. (or PUTs on the Euro depending on how you look at it). I am looking at a cheap Euro Put right now. If I find one I will post my play. Not going nuts here, but Greenspan's nonsense today gave the market every reason to continue to selloff and it did not. M