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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13022)	1/13/2004 9:32:28 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95743

>> I don't like that engulfing black candle Gottfried, Nearly every tech stock except Mot and Sunw was engulfed in black today. But no worries. Intel will brighten the day tomorrow (or the day after). Sarmad

To: Gottfried who wrote (13022)	1/13/2004 9:44:41 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95743

HOT SHOTS: AMAT Signals Reversal By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com 1/13/2004 2:00:00 PM optionetics.com Stocks were lower on Tuesday, but the selling tapered at the end of the session and projections are optimistic for 2004. Nonetheless, with such large gains during the past year, stocks are poised for some profit taking. This being the case, options traders can profit by entering puts on stocks that are showing bearish tendencies. One such stock is Applied Materials (AMAT). Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment for the worldwide semiconductor industry. The Company manufactures systems that perform most of the primary steps in the chip fabrication process, including atomic layer deposition, chemical vapor deposition [CVD], physical vapor deposition, electroplating, etch, ion implantation, rapid thermal processing, chemical mechanical polishing, wafer wet cleaning, metrology and wafer inspection. Applied Materials' subsidiary, AKT Inc., manufactures CVD systems used to make flat panel displays that are used in notebook computers, desktop monitors, televisions and other applications. Etec Systems, Inc., another subsidiary, is a manufacturer of systems used to generate, etch and inspect circuit patterns on reticles used in the photolithography process. It also provides manufacturing facility management software, as well as services to enhance manufacturing yields. AMAT shares have been in an upswing the past month, but on Tuesday, the stock formed a bearish trading signal. When a stock is in an uptrend, a bearish engulfing pattern is a sign of lower prices ahead. This candlestick pattern is created when a stock gaps higher at the open, only to close below the prior session close by the end of the session. In essence, the body of the candlestick engulfs the entire body of the previous session. Strong volume adds to the bearish signal, creating an opportunity to enter puts. Looking at IV for the stock’s options, we see that it is at historic lows and this is exactly what we want to see when we would like to buy options. At the same time, as the stock moves lower, IV is likely to move higher and this also adds profits to the trade. There is resistance at $26 for AMAT, which is two dollars above its current price. If AMAT moves above this point, it might be time to exit the trade. Profits should be taken when the price of the option doubles. Of course, all traders have their own risk tolerance, but the key is to have an exit point set up before entering the trade. Jody Osborne Senior Writer & Options Strategist Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site Visit Jody's Forum

To: Gottfried who wrote (13022)	1/13/2004 10:06:47 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95743

Gottfried, are you really surprised that we got a bearish black engulfing candle? Especially since the stock has been above the upper Bollinger Band with an RSI above 70? How long can stocks rise (in an overbought market) when that market is not being supported by the put buyers anymore? I mean, heck, some sites are even trying to bring out more put buyers... JMHO! Hey, who SICCED me on you? <gg> For anyone who does not know I am 100% in cash except for one small short position in MU and at least half this post was in jest. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (13022)	1/13/2004 10:53:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95743

Gottfried, Maybe I have it wrong, but I would say the last BC happened on 15 December for AMAT. Then for 2 more days it went down some more, and then turned around and went "up" until today. Actually, 12/31 and 1/2 should also be considered "down" days as well, but the point is - from 12/15, when AMAT closed at 21.63, the stock has gone up to the close yesterday at 24.63, a gain of 14 percent. Today of course wasn't very pretty, down over 3 percent, but it may not be the end of the up turn yet. I still think earnings results over the next few days will determine market direction, including AMAT. FWIW. Don